A year of economic pessimism and polarization – Economics – Kommersant
[ad_1]
In the context of a difficult macroeconomic situation, inflation, rising key rates, the situation in Ukraine and other negative events in 2022, economic optimism in the world is declining and polarization is growing. This is the conclusion of the authors of the annual Edelman Trust Barometer study – this year’s report was called “Exploring a polarized world.”
Edelman Trust Barometer is published annually by the American company Edelman, this study analyzes the level of citizens’ trust in various institutions. The survey on which this report was based included 32,000 people from 28 countries. The survey was conducted from 1 to 28 November 2022. Russia was not among the countries this time, although these polls were also conducted here from 2007 to 2021.
Only 40% of those surveyed Edelman Trust Barometer 2023 expect that they and their families will have a better life in the next five years. This is a significant decrease compared to last year – then such economic optimism was demonstrated by 50% of respondents.
The decrease in economic optimism was demonstrated by the citizens of the vast majority of countries. In China alone, this figure rose by 1 percentage point (p.p.). The number of optimists declined the most in Colombia (down 22 pp), Malaysia (down 20 pp) and Nigeria (down 19 pp). The lowest scores overall were shown by rich countries: Japan (only 9% of respondents answered positively), France (12%) and Germany (15%). Overall, 24 of the 28 countries have experienced their lowest level of economic optimism in the 23 years that the survey has been conducted.
As a result, trust in institutions in the world amounted to 56%, that is, it is at a neutral level (the result of up to 49% is characterized by Edelman analysts as distrust, from 50% to 59% is called neutral, from 60% – trust). This figure has not changed compared to last year. Trust in business and government also remained unchanged at 62% and 51%, respectively. Trust in non-governmental organizations and mass media in the world decreased by 1 p.p. – to 59% and 50%, respectively.
More and more people around the world are talking about a high level of polarization in their society. Citizens of six countries reported strong polarization: the US, Argentina, Colombia, South Africa, Spain and Sweden. Nine countries, including Japan, the UK and Germany, are on the borderline between moderate and strong polarization. Causes of polarization include distrust of government and the media, lack of a common identity, systemic injustice, economic pessimism, and public fears.
Among the main fears, respondents named job loss (89%), climate change (74%), inflation (74%), nuclear war (72%), food and energy shortages (67% and 66% respectively).
In general, the authors of the study note four main trends. The first of these is a sense of economic anxiety, as evidenced by a significant decrease in the level of economic optimism. The second trend is an institutional imbalance, in which more and more people consider business as the only ethical and competent institution, while the government is often called unethical and incompetent. The gap in the level of trust between them is 11 percentage points in the world as a whole. However, in many countries it is much larger: 40 p.p. in South Africa, 28 p.p. in Colombia, in the US and the UK, this gap is also somewhat higher than in the world as a whole, and amounts to 13 p.p.
Another trend is a large-scale class gap. The gap in the level of trust in institutions between the representatives of the top and bottom 25% of society in terms of income reaches 15 percentage points: the poor have much less trust in institutions than the wealthy. This gap is most significant in Thailand – 37 p.p., in the USA – 23 p.p., in Saudi Arabia – 20 p.p. As the authors of the report note, this indicates that “residents of the same country live in very different realities. Finally, the fourth trend is the continued decline in trust in the media and the growth of disinformation. The media are in last place among the institutions in terms of the level of trust.
“We see how macroeconomic pressure manifests itself at the individual level in a set of fears from inflation to nuclear war … The consequence of this is a slide from mistrust to acute polarization in society. If we do not intervene, we will see an ongoing transition from a crisis of institutional trust to a crisis of interpersonal trust,” said Edelman CEO Richard Edelman.
[ad_2]
Source link
