A “pain point” for the ruble has been named: the rate will not be allowed to fall below 100 per dollar

Analyst Antonov: “I don’t see conditions for the ruble to move from weakening to strengthening”

The ruble stubbornly refuses to follow the government’s optimistic forecast and, instead of strengthening, continues to weaken. It ended the last exchange trading in September at almost 98 per dollar and over 103 per euro. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Economic Development predicts an exchange rate of 94 per dollar by the end of this year. This means that already in October our national currency should begin to squeeze out toxic “enemies” from America and Europe. “MK” found out whether such a scenario is realistic.

The Ministry of Economic Development believes that the ruble will strengthen not only this year (to 94 per dollar), but also in the future. The dollar should cost 90-92 rubles by the middle of next year, and at the peak of strengthening in July 2024 it will reach 87.5 rubles. But what such optimism is based on is absolutely unclear.

“When making a forecast, the Ministry of Economic Development relies on its macro data and mathematical models,” points out BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov. “There are many different models, the results are different for everyone, since the input parameters are different.”

Indeed, the mathematical model can more or less accurately include the dynamics of certain economic parameters (for example, the price of oil) or tax periods when the demand for rubles increases. But how, for example, can it take into account the progress of the SVO, information about which greatly influences the behavior of exchange players? Or how to take into account the loud statements of certain high-ranking officials, and not only Russian ones, who are also capable of raising or lowering the exchange rate? “In the current conditions with high geopolitical risks and complete uncertainty due to sanctions, it makes no sense to make medium-term forecasts of the exchange rate,” Antonov believes.

If we rely only on fundamental economic factors, then the ruble, in general, has no choice but to continue to fall. The fact is that the ratio of exports and imports remains unfavorable to our national currency, the outflow of capital from the country has not been stopped, the budget deficit, although decreasing, has not yet been overcome, and inflation is accelerating month after month.

Meanwhile, leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global Natalya Milchakova believes that the chances of the ruble strengthening in October are by no means lost. “The dollar above 90 rubles and the euro above 100 rubles look strongly overbought,” the expert claims. She draws attention to the fact that at the end of October the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia will announce the next decision on the key rate. If the dollar rises again to about 100 rubles, then the key rate may be raised again, most likely from 13% to 14%, which in the short term may affect the strengthening of the ruble. And no one canceled the tax period at the end of the month. “So there are factors for a possible strengthening of the ruble,” Milchakova believes.

By the way, the head of the State Duma Banking Committee, Anatoly Aksakov, also expressed the opinion that the monetary authorities will not allow a three-digit dollar value. If the rate again, as in the first half of August, begins to go beyond 100, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance will include more stringent mechanisms of currency regulation, such as the mandatory sale by exporters of all or most of the foreign currency earnings. But so far, the authorities have refrained from such measures, which they successfully applied in the spring of 2022, although the exchange rate once again came close to “hundred”.

“In fact, we do not know at what level in the dollar and euro the “pain point” is for the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance,” Antonov believes. The analyst points out that these same points may not coincide at all among departments. After all, a weak ruble and high oil prices are only to the advantage of the Ministry of Finance, since they do not allow the budget deficit to grow with large expenses. And the Central Bank controls inflation and does not set exchange rates on the market. “The Central Bank only cares about inflation and fights it by raising rates,” says the expert. “The regulator is in favor of market exchange rate mechanisms and does not want to introduce commissions for the purchase of foreign currency and limit the withdrawal of capital.”

So what can we expect from the ruble in October: an increase or a depreciation? The opinions of experts here vary, as do their arguments.

“I don’t yet see the conditions for a reversal of the trend and the ruble moving from weakening to strengthening,” says Antonoa. – The share of transactions in national currencies is increasing, which means that the supply of dollars and euros on the market is decreasing. While the demand for foreign currency from importers remains.”

According to Natalya Milchakova, by the end of October the dollar will fluctuate within the range of 94-98 rubles, the euro in the range of 102-106 rubles..