A new price has been determined for carbon regulation // Climate Policy Monitoring
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Industry experts from Sberbank gave the first assessment of the losses to the Russian economy from the introduction by the European Union of cross-border carbon regulation (CTR) from 2026, taking into account all existing sanctions and the latest decisions of European officials. With these Dec. 12 decisions, the TCO extended to steel, aluminium, electricity, hydrogen, cement, fertilizers and inorganic chemicals. In addition, the start date for the transitional stage of launching the new mechanism has been set at October 2023. Analysts have calculated three scenarios of the effect of the TUR — “soft”, “basic” and “hard” and estimated the volume of exports subject to regulation. It is assumed that due to sanctions, Russian exports in 2026-2035 will decrease by an average of 15%. The following reduction awaits the group of goods: aluminum – 5%, steel – 35-40%, fertilizers and other chemical products – up to 30%, electricity – up to 100%, petrochemicals – up to 20%, cement – up to 100%. Taking into account the EU sanctions, the costs of domestic companies from the introduction of TUR in the baseline scenario are estimated at $14.7 billion…
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