Substances are looking for substitutes – Newspaper Kommersant No. 170 (7371) of 09/15/2022
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By 2024, the Russian drug market, despite a possible reduction in growth rates due to Western sanctions, may reach $35 billion. Such calculations are cited by experts from the consulting company SBS Consulting in their analytical note. At the end of 2021, according to them, the volume of the Russian drug market amounted to 1.9 trillion rubles. The share of imported products on it amounted to 39% in packages and 65% in money – much less than a few years ago, the authors of the report note. According to their estimates, in 2010-2020, more than 100 foreign manufacturers localized the production of 400 drugs at the sites of Russian companies. However, Russia’s dependence on imported pharmaceutical raw materials continues to be high and amounts to approximately 80%. Most of the imports (76%) come from India and China, with a relatively small share of the EU (20%). In the event of tougher sanctions, it may affect the supply of raw materials – increase their cost or make them completely inaccessible to the Russian market. At the same time, the authors of the report note that there are no countries in the world where the model of full localization of pharmaceutical raw materials would be successfully implemented – its maximum level was achieved in countries with a large domestic market and global positions in the pharmaceutical industry, such as the United States (68% of the national market of substances ) and China (90%). Among countries with a closed economy, only Iran (66%) managed to achieve a high level of import substitution.
As the authors of the report note, there are several factors behind such success – these are technology transfer, low costs due to economies of scale (China), and competent protectionism (Iran). In Russia, experts write, despite the existence of the state program for the development of the industry “Pharma-2020”, drug manufacturers were supported rather by separate measures that only partially stimulated the development of raw materials production. The real localization of the production of pharmaceutical raw materials in Russia, they believe, requires a differentiated approach and the launch of new support measures, prioritization of substances, taking into account the level of their processing, and providing the most demanded of them with access to domestic and foreign markets. It should be noted that the Ministry of Industry and Trade should present a new version of the industry development program “Pharma-2030” next week.
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