70 rubles per dollar: how the ruble exchange rate will change before the end of the year

Experts believe that the “wooden” in the coming weeks will weaken

The last three weeks, the ruble pleases with its stability. The course barely fluctuates around 61-62 per dollar and euro. Neither geopolitical circumstances, nor the threat of new sanctions, nor fluctuations in oil prices are yet able to move him from this position. But given the sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate during the previous year (from 50 to 120 per dollar), experts do not believe in the stability and long-term stability of the ruble. Most of the analysts interviewed by MK believe that the Russian national currency will weaken as the end of the year approaches, only opinions differ on the speed of the ruble’s fall.

Fedor Sidorov, private investor, founder of the School of Practical Investing:

“If earlier, before the restrictions and sanctions from Europe and the United States, the ruble was highly dependent on oil prices and other factors, now the main thing for our currency is domestic demand for the dollar and the euro. After the sanctions, the volume of imports brought into Russia dropped sharply, and, accordingly, the demand for foreign currency within the Russian Federation also decreased. And the restrictions of the Central Bank on the purchase of foreign currency were in effect. As a result, the demand for dollars and euros in Russia fell, which greatly strengthened the ruble. Most likely, we will continue to observe this trend: since August, the ruble has gradually weakened (two months ago, the dollar in Russia cost a few rubles less), and by the end of the year, the value of the American currency is expected to rise to the level of 64-66 rubles. Such gradual growth will be almost imperceptible for Russians.

The situation may change drastically later, when parallel import programs are fully operational – then Russian companies will be able to arrange supplies of the necessary raw materials, components, etc. from abroad. And they will need the currency on a large scale, which means that the demand for it will also grow. This will push the dollar and the euro to rise, which may approach the mark of about 70 rubles per unit. But it will most likely happen next year.”

Ivan Samoylenko, Managing Partner at B&C Agency:

“Most likely, by the end of the year we will not see strong changes in exchange rates, since there are no reasons for this. Currently, the Russian ruble has strengthened beyond measure due to the unexpected effect of sanctions: in Russia, the volume of imports that are purchased for foreign currency has fallen sharply. And it all determines the foreign exchange market.

In addition, it is not so much market factors that are important for the ruble now, but the actions of the Central Bank and the government, as well as geopolitics. Suffice it to recall how much the ruble sank in the spring, when serious political events took place.

It has been repeatedly said that a too strong ruble leads to budget losses: in foreign markets, our products become more expensive, sales of our goods fall, and the budget receives less taxes. Therefore, the government is talking about the need to return to the “fair” exchange rate of the ruble – about 70 per dollar: this is how the country’s budget for this year was formed. And for sure, such a weakening of the national currency will occur towards the end of the year – now the dollar is already more expensive than in summer. But it will be a controlled and gradual process. Unless, of course, there are strong shocks in terms of geopolitics, which is very difficult to predict.”

Mikhail Zeltser, stock market expert at BCS World of Investments:

“The outlook for the ruble is deteriorating. The tax period, when companies pay taxes on mining by selling foreign currency, is over, but it did not really help the ruble. Western sanctions are expanding, and in December Europe is threatening to impose a commodity embargo against Russia. At the same time, imports, which collapsed in the spring, are recovering. And this means that the demand for the currency is growing. In general, the factors supporting the ruble are weakening, while the growth drivers of foreign currencies are strengthening.

Based on this, we do not rule out a moderate weakening of the ruble to 65 per US dollar in November. And in the coming months, we will not be surprised at the exchange rate of 70 for an “American”. For those who are interested in “friendly” currencies, the target for the Chinese yuan by the beginning of 2023 is 9.5 rubles.”