218 billion rubles can be allocated for the expansion of the BAM and the Trans-Siberian Railway. from the FNB

The government can issue funds from the NWF in the amount of up to 218 billion rubles. for the third stage of the expansion of the Eastern range. It is not yet clear which activities will be funded through this. The third stage should consist of two parts – the work of Russian Railways to achieve a carrying capacity of 210 million tons in 2030, as well as concession agreements for complex bridges and tunnels, the construction of which will expand the BAM and the Trans-Siberian Railway by another 45 million tons by 2032. Analysts commend the government’s willingness to commit money ahead of time, as it will make it easier to start designing and signal industry to continue investing in infrastructure.

Funds from the National Welfare Fund may be allocated for the third stage of the BAM and Transsib expansion. This was announced by Deputy Minister of Transport Valentin Ivanov. “This issue is being considered for the Eastern test site,” he said. “The figure was preliminary about 200–218 billion rubles.”

Now Russian Railways is implementing the second stage of the expansion of the BAM and the Trans-Siberian Railway, which should be completed in 2024 with a carrying capacity of 180 million tons. According to Kommersant’s information, the discussed version of the third stage with an output of 255 million tons of throughput in 2032 includes two parts: the first is the activities of Russian Railways itself, the second is the expansion of the Eastern test site through concession initiatives for complex facilities (see “Kommersant” dated November 22, 2022). The first part should be completed in 2030 with a throughput of 210 million tons. In November 2022, it was about 197 million tons by 2027 (the same figures are expected by this year and today). At that time, the measures aimed at exporting 16.6 million tons of coal from the Elginskoye deposit to the ports of the Vanino-Sovgavan hub included an increase in the carrying capacity of the Ulak-Komsomolsk-on-Amur section from 48.6 million to 65.2 million tons. The cost of this part should be 465 billion rubles. The remaining volumes of the first part of the third stage are achieved through measures worth 800 billion rubles, including the electrification of the Volochaevka-Komsomolsk-Vanino section, which was postponed to a later date. In 2030, it is tentatively planned to transport about 212 million tons of cargo through the Eastern range, of which about 68% will be coal.

The second part of the third stage with completion in 2032 and an increase in carrying capacity by 45 million tons is carried out through the adoption of the Bamtonnelstroy-Most concession initiative by Ruslan Baisarov and Gazprombank for 588 billion rubles. (see “Kommersant” dated June 1, 2022). We are talking about four objects: a bridge across the Amur with a planned commissioning in 2027 and the construction of alternates for the Kodarsky, Kuznetsovsky and Severomuysky tunnels with the commissioning of all in 2030. In April, Roszheldor became the authorized body to consider proposals for concession agreements.

The Ministry of Transport and JSC Russian Railways did not specify what specific activities are proposed to be financed from the NWF. A source familiar with the situation says that the list of events has not yet been formed.

According to Mikhail Burmistrov, the head of Infoline-Analytics, in the foreseeable future, the allocation of funds from the NWF for the third stage, even despite its remoteness, is the right decision and a good sign for investors, to whom the government informs that there will be and they can invest in scarce infrastructure. implement the planned investment projects. He believes that by allocating funds for the development of infrastructure, the government indirectly returns to exporters part of the funds that they lost due to changes in the economic situation.

As for the cargo base for the Eastern test site, there is less and less doubt about it, “if we don’t carry coal, we’ll carry oil, if we don’t carry oil, we’ll carry metals,” the expert believes.

According to the analyst, the advance allocation of funds by the government will allow Russian Railways to start designing and prioritizing construction projects within the third stage earlier.

Natalya Skorlygina