17.3 billion rubles will be subsidies for preferential car loans in 2024
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The State Duma in the second reading approved an increase in the volume of support for the automobile industry. The funds will mainly be used for preferential car loans – over 17 billion rubles are provided for this, as during the pandemic, for which Lada will mainly be able to qualify. Analysts consider the terms of the program and its volume to be justified against the backdrop of high car prices and rising loan rates. Banks believe that demand for the instrument will continue, despite the rise in prices for car loans, and will give an impetus to the market, but the funds will only last for a few months.
The State Duma approved in the second reading the draft federal budget with increased funding for programs to support demand for cars and other equipment. Thus, 9 billion rubles are now allocated for preferential leasing programs for cars and special equipment. and 3.3 billion rubles. against 2 billion rubles. initially. The financing of discounts for farmers on agricultural equipment under the 1432 program has also increased – from 2 billion to 8 billion rubles. and discounts on gas engine equipment – from 2.95 billion to 4.95 billion rubles. Initially, the budget provided for less funding for these programs than in recent years.
The situation with the preferential car loan program is different – 12.3 billion rubles were allocated for it even at the first reading. against 5 billion rubles. this year, which was comparable to the pre-crisis level (about 13 billion rubles in 2021).
Now 17.3 billion rubles are provided for preferential car loans.
Such a volume of funds was allocated for the program only once – in 2020 amid the pandemic.
The government has been subsidizing the auto industry since 2009, and the preferential car loan program has been operating annually since 2015 – from that moment until 2017, it subsidized 2/3 of the Central Bank rate (in 2015, for example, the rate was 11%). Since 2017, the program has offered a discount on the down payment on the loan based on the cost of the car. Only a limited list of locally produced models can participate in the program.
According to VTB, in 2023 borrowers will receive about 1.6 trillion rubles for the purchase of passenger cars, which is twice the figure for 2022, and 45% higher than the record year of 2021. Despite the high level of the key rate, in 2024 they expect continued market growth due to the restoration of sales to the 2021 level and an increase in the cost of cars. The discussed volume of state support “will give a strong impetus to the car lending market,” VTB believes, believing that the funds can be spent in a few months.
The head of Otkritie Auto, Marina Dembitskaya, says that demand in the market is still consistently high. “In November, based on the results of two weeks, we have the same search results as a month earlier, even a little better. All this suggests that Russians continue to buy cars, including on credit, fearing further increases in prices and rates,” she explains. In 2024, taking into account the further expected growth of the key rate and car prices, the pace of car lending may slow down to 7–9% under an optimistic scenario and remain at the same values under the base forecast, Ms. Dembitskaya believes. She calls the car loan program effective, recalling that this year 5 billion rubles. according to the state program were spent in 1.5 months.
Vyacheslav Yakubchik from Rosbank Auto says that “in the current environment, a more realistic scenario would be to maintain lending volumes at the 2023 level.” The launch of state support programs gives an additional impetus to maintaining demand, Mr. Yakubchik believes: “Funds can be used in the specified and even much larger volumes. “It all depends on the conditions and restrictions on the categories of the population to which the program will be available, as well as on the model range of cars to which it will apply.”
Traditionally, the main beneficiary of the preferential car loan program was AvtoVAZ; you can also buy Haval Jolion and UAZ models. Taking into account the plan of the Ministry of Industry and Trade to return to the program the requirements for the level of localization in points (see “Kommersant” dated October 2) it is unlikely that any other models will reach the level of 1.4 thousand points. Expansion of the list is possible for electric vehicles, for which only production under a special investment contract is sufficient.
Sergei Udalov from Avtostat believes that the car loan market in 2024 will likely remain at this year’s level or decrease slightly. At the same time, the preferential car loan program will continue to be in demand, since it makes it possible to purchase a car more profitably than on credit without government support, he believes. The increase in the cost of cars and loan rates will, of course, limit the segment, the analyst continues, but it will continue to fulfill its function of supporting the Russian automobile industry and the population who do not have the means to buy a car.
Automotive expert Vladimir Bespalov also points to “socially vulnerable categories of the population” who have a request to buy a car, but the market price is too high. In addition, he notes, the car market is now facing the prospect of a reduction in sales in 2024. State support for car lending, the analyst believes, may be needed to prevent a rollback of the market, which has just begun to recover and is far from reaching pre-crisis volumes.
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