what kind of industry did Russia suddenly need?
[ad_1]
This year, industries that few people in the Russian Federation remembered existed in the news feeds and budget expenditure items. These “ugly ducklings” were neglected for a long time, and the state did not move to their active development out of a good life. The main thing that the authorities can offer them now is a large government order. However, how successful attempts to revive microelectronics and machine tool building, create an unmanned industry or develop small-scale chemistry will ultimately be depends mainly on whether they can find a place for themselves in the civilian market.
Weaknesses and hidden defects quickly and clearly appear under load. This happened in Russian industry under the parallel pressure of growing military orders, sanctions and other restrictions. It suddenly became clear that the country could not do without its own base in microelectronics, machine tool manufacturing and the creation of drones. And small-scale chemicals, a significant part of which has been forgotten since Soviet times, are now of interest to investors who have problems with the continuity of production chains.
These previously far from the most popular industries have been highlighted by the intense interest of the authorities, mainly with a defense overtone, which in most cases is accompanied by a concentration of management decisions and budget financing. However, it is still difficult to say how much interest will be constant, efforts will be effective, and funds will be sufficient.
Micro to Macro
Domestic microelectronics already in Soviet times it lagged far behind advanced Western models. In modern Russia this gap has increased. Now the largest and most technologically advanced semiconductor manufacturer in the country, Micron, works with topological standards of 90–130 nm (for the world market – the level of 2000). This is enough to produce chips for bank and transport cards, microelectronics for the defense sector and microcontrollers. But for high-performance general-purpose processors, chips of at least 28 nm are needed.
Sanctions in 2022 denied Russian companies and the public sector not only access to the most modern chips, but also made it very difficult to obtain even ordinary components. The government was faced with the need, on the one hand, to modernize the capacity of semiconductor factories as quickly as possible, and on the other hand, to master the production of high-tech equipment for the production of microelectronics (lithographs, steppers, etching plants), advanced materials (monocrystalline silicon ingots, special chemicals, resists), and also ensure the development of computer-aided design systems.
As a result, according to Kommersant, in 2023, certain formulated foundations of the state policy of the Russian Federation in the field of development of the electronics industry until 2030 and beyond appeared.
It may involve re-equipping factories, mastering the production of materials and production equipment.
In October, at the Microelectronics forum, representatives of the Ministry of Industry and Trade said that in 2023–2025, about 100 billion rubles would be allocated to the development of equipment for the production of semiconductors. This is a huge leap for the industry. According to Minister Denis Manturov, if in 2020 budget investments in microelectronics did not exceed 10 billion rubles, then in 2023 they amounted to 147 billion rubles, and in 2024 they are planned at a level of more than 210 billion rubles.
“We see that regulators have begun to understand the industry more deeply, have increased funding both for current production and for the development of equipment, chemistry, as well as the development of promising technological processes,” says Andrey Evdokimov, general director of Baikal Electronics.
However, the optimistic “and they lived happily ever after” is still very far away.
Kommersant’s source in one of the large semiconductor manufacturers emphasizes that factories are given only preferential loans, while design centers are given “non-refundable funds in the form of subsidies, grants and government orders.”
He calls the situation “inverted”: in the world it is production that receives non-refundable funds for development. Kommersant’s interlocutor at one of the electronics vendors confirms that in the short term it is production that needs to be increased: “Advanced topological standards are not needed to produce equipment that is necessary for combat operations.”
In the long term, Kommersant’s sources clarify, the authorities will master new technologies, but also aiming “at those breakthrough solutions, including those for ensuring the operation of systems based on artificial intelligence, which can be used simultaneously in both the civilian and military segments ” The question is to what extent such priorities will allow the industry to lay a stable basis for survival in peacetime.
Low to high
Interest in unmanned aircraft in the Russian Federation, too, was prompted by military actions in Ukraine. Since the end of 2022, on behalf of the president, a strategy for the development of the industry until 2030 has been developed; it was approved in June 2023. The emphasis was placed on large-scale government orders, which are expected to spin the flywheel of private demand.
Initially, the Ministry of Industry and Trade estimated the volume of orders from the state and state-owned companies until 2030 at 200 billion rubles, of which 100 billion rubles – until 2026. By the fall, the ministry had clarified the plan to just under 190 billion rubles. until 2030 in the amount of 13 thousand drones. It is expected that increasingly localized models will be purchased due to increasingly stringent requirements, and the share of domestic drones in government orders should increase from the current 25% to almost 45%. Manufacturers with a low level of localization will be cut off from government orders.
Experts consider the current degree of localization of drones to be very conditional, since most of them are a product of screwdriver assembly from Chinese components.
Skeptics fear that the requirements of the Ministry of Industry and Trade will lead to “pseudo-localization”, while important components, including the motor and battery, will not be produced in the Russian Federation. Other industry participants argue that it would be impossible to jump straight into import substitution (see “Kommersant” dated June 13).
But the main concern of industry participants remains that after 2024, budget funding for the order may decrease, and the attention of the authorities to the topic will decrease if the immediate military relevance goes away. At the same time, the civilian segment of the industry will not have time to sufficiently get on its feet, including due to the imperfection of the regulatory framework and the existing ban on drone flights in the regions.
Slow to fast
Of all the “ducklings,” the saddest and “ugliest” is probably machine tool industry, which essentially has not developed in the Russian Federation since the beginning of market reforms. It was much more efficient and easier to buy foreign equipment (even outdated and used equipment is much better than domestic equipment). Russian machines were mainly used in the defense industry, and even there they could not solve all problems.
The increased need for the production of military equipment, as well as severe problems with the supply, renewal and maintenance of civilian equipment, on the one hand, immediately encountered a lack of capacity and development, but on the other hand, they created a steady demand.
Dmitry Babansky from SBS Consulting calls the main problem of the sector the lagging technological level of Russian products. In the Russian Federation there is absolutely no competence in the production of certain types of machine tools (for example, polishing machines, high-precision machining centers).
It is becoming increasingly difficult to supply machine tools from foreign suppliers – and China has in many ways not become an alternative. In many cases, the production of even those machines that were available in the USSR has been discontinued and forgotten; it needs to be recreated.
A separate task will be to establish the production of components, for example, precision bearings, hydraulic and pneumatic systems.
In addition to increasing orders, the state is now subsidizing R&D and discounts on products in the machine tool industry. But in this segment, it is least clear how even the current active level of support will be enough to bridge the technology gap, if at all.
Few to many
Small and medium-tonnage chemistry in the Russian Federation found itself among the ugly ducklings solely for reasonable economic reasons. The market is small, R&D is expensive, and it’s easy to buy abroad. Was. Specialty chemicals—including catalysts, specialty polymers, reagents, enzymes, and even iodine—have traditionally been imported from Europe and the United States. Almost unnoticed in public discussions in 2022, the ban on their supply became a serious problem: in the country, for example, the production of white paper was stopped.
Ministry of Industry and Trade in November 2022 made up a plan that included more than 300 types of chemical products subject to import substitution. Since then, market participants admit, only hydrogen peroxide and several technologically simple substances (for example, adhesives) have actually begun to be produced in the Russian Federation. Vladimir Putin ordered the government to speed up the process. At the end of October, Denis Manturov reported that 19 out of 47 planned projects had been implemented: chemical plant protection products, sealants, intermediate products for pharmaceuticals, perfumes and the food industry. In total, the authorities intend to allocate 500 billion rubles for the development of the sector. until 2030, and the total investment volume is estimated at 2 trillion rubles.
As follows from the investment ratio, private business should become the main driving force. And, which again seriously distinguishes chemists from other “ugly ducklings,” the industry says their hopes are well founded.
“The absence of a chemical, which accounts for a conventional 0.01% of the cost, paralyzes the entire process; it takes months to select an analogue in China,” says one of the market participants. “We are looking at what problems we can guarantee to solve by building installations that will operate in zero or even a slight minus.” Another chemist confirms that his company’s management “has changed its decision-making criteria: now a project that closes a technological gap can be given life, even if it is economically ineffective.”
Of course, a change in conditions can return the criteria to their previous principles. But there is a high probability that by that time production will be launched and even partially depreciated.
[ad_2]
Source link
