What Crimea is building from itself
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Fears of buyers, complex logistics and cautious policy of developers have led to a decrease in demand for housing in the Crimea. Over the year, the number of transactions with new buildings here has decreased by 38%, while in the neighboring Krasnodar Territory, demand is growing by 20-40%. Crimean developers already see a positive trend, but realtors doubt that demand will recover before the end of hostilities in nearby regions.
From July 2022 to the end of June 2023, in the primary market of Crimea and Sevastopol, 2.05 thousand equity participation agreements (DDU) for apartments were concluded, which is 38% lower than the figure for the previous 12 months, calculated in Cyan.Analytics. A decrease in demand in the primary market of the region is noted against the background of active sales in the neighboring region. According to Cyan.Analytika, in the Krasnodar Territory, the number of preschool inmates grew by 40% over the year, to 32,000, excluding Krasnodar, by 20%, to 6,500. this period grew by 7% year-on-year.
According to the results of the first half of the year, DataFlat.ru notes a similar, albeit less pronounced, dynamics. According to the company’s estimates, in January-June 2023, 1.2 thousand DDUs were concluded in Crimea, which is 7% less than a year earlier. In the Krasnodar Territory, the figure grew by 58% year-on-year, to 18,000 preschool institutions.
Director of “Etazhi-Kuban” Vadim Kamalov says that the real estate market of the Krasnodar Territory in the last year felt better than some others due to inter-regional transactions and domestic demand. “Agricultural sales provide a good profit, many transactions are carried out without credit funds, so fluctuations in mortgage rates affect us to a lesser extent,” he explains. According to Mr. Kamalov, a significant part of the transactions in the Krasnodar Territory were carried out with Kherson certificates, giving the right to purchase housing within the established norm at an approved cost of 88.7 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m.
Demand for Crimea, according to Vadim Kamalov, is limited due to the proximity of hostilities and general uncertainty. Many residents of the peninsula make their own decisions about buying a home in the Krasnodar Territory, he points out. Alexey Popov, head of Cyan.Analytics, adds that complex logistics also affect real estate transactions in Crimea. The Sochi airport operates in the Krasnodar Territory, it is relatively easy to get from Stavropol and the Mineralnye Vody, and you have to travel to the Crimea by train and car, he explains.
At the same time, Mr. Popov notes, developers are responding to growing demand in the Krasnodar Territory by building more and more new buildings, while construction activity is limited in Crimea. According to the Nash.Dom.RF portal, 893,000 sq. m. m of housing, which is 42% more than a year earlier. But sales are carried out in facilities with an area of 472 thousand square meters. m, which is 10.6% less than last year. The share of sold space in the volume of construction decreased from 50% to 21%.
However, the Crimean developers are positive. The head of the InterStroy group, Oleg Leukhin, says that the drop in demand was felt last year, but now the situation is better. Mortgage programs with state support and the opening of Sberbank branches in the region help, he explains. Daria Osadchaya, marketing director of Monolith companies, also reports a gradual recovery in customer activity since February this year. According to her, more deals are made with two- and three-room apartments, which are more often purchased for living.
Mr. Leukhin considers Crimean real estate to be undervalued and attractive for investment. Apartments in Sochi are at least 2.5 times more expensive, he points out. According to Cyan.Analytics, over the past year, the average cost of transactions with new buildings in the Crimea has grown by 4%, to 136 thousand rubles. per 1 sq. m, in the Krasnodar Territory – by 12%, up to 151 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In Sochi, according to Vadim Kamalov, secondary housing now costs an average of 450 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, and new buildings – from 350-380 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. According to him, the overheated price tag is already leading to the stagnation of the Sochi market. In the future, the expert also considers Crimean real estate interesting for buyers, but doubts that demand for it will begin to recover before the end of hostilities in nearby regions.
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