The Russian authorities have worked to keep the exchange rate below 100 rubles / $

By the end of the outgoing week, the sharp and quick actions of the authorities returned the dollar exchange rate below 94 rubles / $, that is, to those values ​​that were at the beginning of the month. At the same time, they still have a set of funds in reserve, which should prevent a possible new growth in the exchange rate of the American currency. The accumulated support factors for the ruble make it possible to maintain the dollar exchange rate in the range of 90–100 rubles/$ until the end of the year.

As a result of exchange trading on Friday, August 18, the dollar exchange rate rolled back by a symbolic two kopecks, to the level of 93.76 rubles / $. Thus, the market almost completely leveled the rise of the previous two weeks, and the dollar returned to the values ​​of the beginning of August. At the same time, during exchange trading, the exchange rate approached the level of 92.5 rubles/$, but, as on the previous two days (Tuesday and Thursday), did not reach it.

Trading activity remained high until the end of the week. On Friday, the dollar trading volume (with delivery “tomorrow”) exceeded 137 billion rubles, and during the week it confidently exceeded 120 billion rubles, reaching on some days up to 160 billion rubles. At the same time, since mid-May, the volumes rarely exceeded 100 billion rubles. in a day. At the same time, trading volumes with the yuan decreased significantly by the end of the week – on Friday they amounted to only 132 billion rubles. Meanwhile, in the previous days of the week they amounted to 165-220 billion rubles.

The steady strengthening of the ruble last week was determined by active statements and actions of the authorities after the dollar exchange rate exceeded the level of 100 rubles/$ (see Kommersant of August 15). According to Sovcombank’s chief analyst Mikhail Vasiliev, the ruble’s dynamics was most influenced by the authorities’ signal that the 100 rub/$ exchange rate is significant and the readiness to use almost all instruments to stabilize the market below this level. According to PSB chief analyst Denis Popov, the main contribution to the stabilization of the exchange rate dynamics at the first stage was made by “verbal interventions and agreements with businesses, which were reported by the media.” In the future, according to him, the impact of tightening monetary policy will grow and “provide a significant contribution to exchange rate stabilization.”

Currently, according to market participants, thanks to the actions of the authorities, it has stabilized. However, risks of a new weakening of the Russian currency remain. As Mr. Vasiliev noted, the expected slowdown in the global economy in the second half of the year may lead to a decrease in Brent oil prices below $80 per barrel. And under these conditions, the reduction in exports will remain a factor of pressure on the ruble. In addition, he notes that if the Ministry of Finance does not fit into a budget deficit of 2-2.5% of GDP, then “budget and inflationary risks will remain a negative factor for the ruble.”

However, if there are risks of a new weakening of the ruble, in particular, when the dollar approaches 100 rubles/$, the authorities may resort to additional measures aimed at stabilizing the exchange rate. According to Mr. Vasiliev, among them may be the return of the mandatory sale of exporters’ foreign exchange earnings, and the tightening of restrictions on capital outflow, and a ban on the payment of dividends and loans abroad, and a ban on lending to foreign trading divisions, and an increase in the key rate.

Under such conditions, the dollar exchange rate may be in the range of 90–100 rubles/$ until the end of the year. taking into account the factors that support the Russian currency. As Denis Popov notes, raising the key rate and stopping the increase in government spending should “limit the growing dynamics of imports.” In addition, the end of the holiday season will reduce the volume of imports of services. At the same time, rising oil prices and the adaptation of exporters to work in the new conditions will ensure a gradual recovery in the value of exports, he said.

In autumn, the Russian currency may receive support from oil prices. As Mikhail Vasilyev notes, the approximate lag between high oil prices and the supply of foreign currency from export earnings to the Russian foreign exchange market is two to three months. Given that Brent oil prices fixed above $80 per barrel in July, a positive impact on the ruble is likely to appear in September-October.

Dmitry Mikhailovich