Today every atom is expensive – Newspaper Kommersant No. 153 (7354) of 08/23/2022

As Kommersant found out, Rosatom disclosed to specialized regulators the price parameters of two power units of the Kursk NPP-2 with a capacity of 2.4 GW. The cost of producing blocks will be about 7 rubles. for 1 kWh. The total consumer payment for both blocks will exceed 3 trillion rubles. Rosatom says that the calculations of price parameters are still ongoing, and point to the equipment becoming more expensive and the increase in security costs. The industry fears that the expansion of nuclear power plants will require new grid infrastructure.

“Kommersant” managed to get acquainted with the assessment of the cost implications of the construction of two power units of the Kursk NPP-2 for 2.4 GW. The “Market Council” (energy market regulator) sent its calculations to the Ministry of Energy (“Kommersant” saw the document dated April 12). In particular, the single-rate price of electricity from the first unit of the Kursk NPP after launch in 2026 will be 6.73 thousand rubles. for 1 MWh, the second block (to be launched in 2028) – 7.15 thousand rubles. For comparison: the average wholesale price of electricity in the European part of the Russian Federation and the Urals is now about 2.6 thousand rubles.

Rosatom will build two new power units of the Kursk NPP-2 on VVER-TOI reactors at the expense of guaranteed consumer payments.

The state corporation proposes to establish a base profitability of projects at 10.5% and a payback period of 25 years. At the beginning of the year, Rosatom disclosed only the specific CAPEX of blocks – 182.9 thousand rubles. for 1 kW. The state corporation then claimed that the price of a kilowatt-hour of a nuclear power plant would be “quite competitive.” In 2016, at a meeting in the Ministry of Economy on the program for the construction of nuclear power plants, the cost of generating a nuclear unit was estimated at 2.2 thousand rubles. per 1 MWh (in 2015 prices).

The annual payment for the capacity of the first power unit of the Kursk NPP-2 in 2026 will be approximately 53.5 billion rubles. per year, the second in 2028 – 56.6 billion rubles. The total payment for both blocks by 2050 will exceed 2.9 trillion rubles. The Market Council also conducted an analysis for seven more 8.6 GW power units, including units of the Leningrad NPP-2, Smolensk NPP-2 and Beloyarsk NPP. The total annual payment for the capacity of all nine facilities after the launch in 2037 will amount to 603 billion rubles. (322 billion rubles in 2021 prices), or about 21.3% of the total cost of wholesale electricity in the European part of the Russian Federation and the Urals.

The regulator conducted an assessment based on data from Rosatom, the document says. The installed capacity utilization factor of the Kursk station is 85%, the service life is 50 years, the unit operating costs per month are 1.37–1.47 million rubles. per 1 MW (in 2021 prices) depending on the unit.

Moreover, the regulator “revealed moments that do not allow an unambiguous assessment of the amount of operating costs.”

Thus, the amount of other operating expenses (taking into account the expenses of the central office of Rosenergoatom, REA) is indicated at the level of 1.89 thousand rubles. for 1 MW, and for the first power unit – 2.85 thousand rubles. The Market Council and the Ministry of Energy did not respond to Kommersant’s request.

REA also sent information to the Ministry of Energy about the VVER-TOI control ranges (Kommersant has a document dated May 17). According to the document, the range of one planned active power change cycle per VVER-TOI day is from 100% to 50% of the nominal unit power and vice versa (250 cycles per year).

The CEA told Kommersant that it was premature to comment on any specific figures, since “the work to determine the parameters that will become the basis for calculating prices for the capacity of new nuclear power plants has not been completed.” The question of “Kommersant” about the growth of a single-rate price in relation to 2016 in the REA “caused bewilderment”: “For seven years, there has been an increase in prices for equipment and building materials (taking into account the inflationary component). In addition, today, when designing and building, higher requirements and standards for the safety of nuclear power plants are taken into account, which led to a slight increase in the cost of power units.”

Comparison of modern generation technologies in terms of LCOE is not yet in favor of nuclear power plants, says Maxim Dyakin from Vygon Consulting.

For example, according to the results of the selection of renewable energy projects in 2021, the LCOE range for solar stations was 4.3–6.4 rubles. for 1 kWh, and for wind turbines – 1.7–5.1 rubles. LCOE of power units based on domestic gas turbines amounted to 3.5–3.9 rubles. per 1 kWh, which is two times lower than that of new NPPs. But the gap may narrow, admits Maxim Dyakin: “The sophistication of the technologies of the nuclear industry allows Rosatom to consider nuclear power plants as a sustainable solution in the face of economic instability.”

“It is paradoxical that the main advantage of new power units – a wide adjustment range – is decreasing, while their cost is growing,” they say in the Energy Consumers Community. “the reserve of thermal power plants, it makes no sense to overpay for new nuclear power plants. It is also important to take into account that when increasing nuclear capacity in the energy balance, the deficit in the regulation range of new nuclear power plants will add to their high cost of spending on expanding the network, as well as building and maintaining compensating pumped storage power plants.

Polina Smertina