Thousands of carriages piled up at the entrance to Crimea

Thousands of loaded tank cars have accumulated on the North Caucasus Railway, which, due to restrictions on travel on the Crimean Bridge, are waiting for the opportunity to get to the peninsula. Some last for six months. Market participants propose to use tankers more for transportation to Crimea, but for now block the release of additional tanks to the network in this direction. Downtime in the south highlights the general shortage of oil and gasoline tanks, which market participants talk about, estimating it differently – from hundreds to 45 thousand units. Oil companies propose to temporarily lift the ban on extending the service life of tanks, but carriage manufacturers and Russian Railways OJSC are against this.

About 2.5 thousand tanks with petroleum products have accumulated on the North Caucasus Railway (SKZD) due to restrictions on the passage of dangerous goods across the Crimean Bridge and the need to wait for ferries and tankers to arrive. This problem was discussed at a meeting of the working group at the Ministry of Industry and Trade on March 15, as follows from its minutes (“Kommersant has seen the document”). Some tanks remain idle for six months, it was said at the meeting.

The presence of wagons with petroleum products on the North Caucasus Railways infrastructure is associated with the expectation of their transfer to other participants in the transport chain, says Russian Railways. Delays, the company assured, occur for reasons beyond the control of Russian Railways. At the same time, the company is in constant interaction with all partners, participates in the development of joint transport solutions and informs customers about the current situation, they add. Representatives of Russian Railways at the meeting, as follows from its minutes, proposed increasing the loading of tankers, which would reduce the amount of idle time by 1.5 thousand tanks.

Russian Railways, in addition to the mechanism for accepting applications for the transportation of goods (GU-12), has had a dynamic infrastructure loading model (DILM) since March last year, which allows it to automatically take into account infrastructure restrictions when planning loading and approving applications. That is, if something prevents the cargo from reaching its final point, then it will not even be sent from the loading site.

The meeting participants noted that this system does not currently limit the acceptance of applications specifically in the Crimean direction. Following the meeting, Russian Railways JSC was instructed to consider the possibility of introducing DMZ in limiting directions “until the situation normalizes.”

According to the head of Infoline-Analytics, Mikhail Burmistrov, the accumulation of oil cargo in the area of ​​​​the entrance to the bridge is very dangerous and should be eliminated as soon as possible. He notes that the DMZI in this direction must take into account the capacity limit and not accept oil cargo onto the network if it cannot pass through the limiting section.

One of the ways to solve the problem would be to introduce a railway from Rostov-on-Don to Crimea through new territories. Last week, Novorossiya Railways announced that the full launch of the railway is planned before the end of 2024, and the first cargo began on March 15. Mr. Burmistrov notes that the second major task is to ensure the safety of the Crimean bridge itself.

A particular case of tank car downtime in the south highlights the problem of shortage of this type of rolling stock. On March 13, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak instructed the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Energy to consider the issue of the shortage of oil and gasoline tanks and LPG tanks.

In early March, a collective letter was written to Mr. Novak by the head of LUKOIL Vadim Vorobyov, Gazprom Neft Alexander Dyukov, Tatneft Nail Maganov and NOVATEK Leonid Mikhelson (“Kommersant has seen the document”). Executives of oil and gas companies write that the deficit that has developed since 2022 is caused by high rates of write-offs with limited purchases (over the past ten years, 65 thousand tank cars have been written off with purchases of only 16 thousand) and an increase in the turnover of wagons on the network. According to JSC Russian Railways estimates, turnover increased in 2023 relative to 2021 by 13%, which proportionately increased the need for the car fleet.

Top managers note that in 2025–2027, a peak in the decommissioning of tank cars is expected – more than 25 thousand units, or 15% of the total fleet. They explain that there is a high risk that the disposal will not be compensated by the new fleet even with high plant utilization. They propose to temporarily lift the ban on extending the service life of tanks by three to five years and increase their production volumes.

JSC Russian Railways told Kommersant that the existing fleet of tank cars is more than enough to organize both domestic and export transportation. “In February 2024, almost 18 thousand oil and gasoline tanks stood idle on non-public roads without operations every day,” they note, saying that the reliability of gasoline delivery to domestic Russian consumers remains at a consistently high level and reaches 96.5% this year.

At the meeting on March 15, estimates of JSC Russian Railways were given: the total surplus of tank cars in 2024 is 17.2 thousand units with a turnover of 20.7 days, the shortage of oil and gasoline tanks, according to operators, is 347 units, LPG tanks are 3,602 units. According to Rosneft from the same meeting, the shortage of oil and gasoline tanks is 27 thousand, Gazprom Neft – 25-45 thousand units.

According to the presentation of the United Carriage Company at TransRussia 2024, 35.3 thousand tank cars are planned for decommissioning in 2025–2028, of which 87% are oil and gasoline. However, the maximum capacity of all factories in the Russian Federation is 13.3 thousand tank cars per year, which makes it possible to cover the demand even in conditions of growing cargo base and increasing car turnover.

At the same time, with a real distribution of output between oil-gasoline and specialized tanks, production capacity will be about 9 thousand units per year, the presentation notes, which indicates that the key to eliminating local shortages lies in long-term planning for the purchase of new tanks.

Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Association of Car Builders Vladimir Artyakov reported this in his January letter to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, noting that “an analysis of the results of tank car production over the past seven years has revealed extremely low interest of operators and owners of rolling stock in updating the fleet through the purchase of new cars.” He notes that the implementation of proposals to extend the service life of tanks not only runs counter to the order of the President of the Russian Federation of 2013 banning extensions, but also “may affect the stability of the freight car building industry.”

Mr. Artyakov sees in such a decision the danger of a sharp increase in the cost of cars, including tanks, from 2030, when massive write-offs of the fleet will begin (50-80 thousand units per year), as well as the creation of an undesirable precedent.

Natalia Skorlygina, Dmitry Kozlov