there is no need to expect that the state will always come to the rescue – Kommersant

In the current economic situation, it is important not to expect that the state and Central Banks will come to the rescue and save everyone, says Ksenia Yudaeva, adviser to the head of the Bank of Russia. According to her, the anti-crisis measures taken by management create risks in the long term. She cited preferential mortgages as an example of such a situation.

Ksenia Yudaeva noted that in 2020, governments and central banks “very actively got involved and saved everyone.” “And now we live in a world where everyone is constantly waiting to be saved,” says the adviser to the head of the Central Bank. She made this statement at an online discussion as part of the Educational Days of the Russian Economic School, which was broadcast by Forbes.

“Now the question should be how to limit the influence of the state and the Central Bank and these expectations that they will always come to the rescue, and how to move away from the support decisions made during the crisis,” said Ksenia Yudaeva.

According to her, a classic example of such a case for Russia is preferential mortgages, which were initially a “useful solution,” but due to the huge gap between the primary and secondary markets, continuing to finance preferential mortgages is “not very rational.” “Such previously made decisions, while continuing to operate, can accumulate long-term budgetary risks, and they, in turn, create risks of financial stability,” noted Ksenia Yudaeva.

The adviser to the head of the Central Bank also noted that the urgent question now is how to combine anti-crisis measures and long-term sustainability in fiscal policy. “There is still quite a lot of disagreement between these two considerations, and this can create risks for the future,” she said.

According to the Central Bank, over the year the mortgage portfolio of Russian banks grew by 32%. At the same time, prices for new buildings have jumped by 90% over the past three years. This fall, representatives of the Central Bank have repeatedly noted the deterioration in the quality of mortgage loans. In this regard, the Central Bank is considering new measures to regulate mortgage programs.

According to forecasts experts, if the Central Bank decides to tighten mortgage regulation measures, the issuance of preferential mortgages for new buildings could decrease by 20–40%. The most sensitive for the market may be an increase in the down payment to 30%. However, as experts note, the demand for preferential programs is already falling, and interest is switching to “family mortgages.”

More details in the material “Preferential mortgages are freezing”.

Anastasia Larina