There is a shortage and rising costs of personnel in logistics

The staff shortage in logistics has worsened in 2023. There is a rush demand for drivers of trucks and warehouse equipment, as well as for warehouse personnel in general, freight forwarders and couriers. Companies are looking for employees for months, applicants have become extremely picky, and shift workers, who previously covered part of the demand, have lost interest in working in this mode. The reason for the shortage of personnel is the demographic failure of the 1990s, the outflow to related segments and the growth in the volume of operations. The deficit leads to an increase in wages in logistics, which, according to market participants, may increase by another 20–30% in 2024.

The average number of vacancies in logistics increased over the year by more than one and a half times, to 155.5 thousand, while the number of resumes decreased by 10%, to 500 thousand, follows from HeadHunter data given in the review by hh.ru and PEC. Thus, in 2023 there were three resumes per vacancy, whereas a year earlier there were twice as many. The average time to fill a vacancy in the line personnel category has increased over the past year from 21 days to three months. SDEK claims that in the past there were an average of 10–12 resumes per vacancy, but by the end of 2023 there would be only 2.1.

Who is needed

Market participants note a growing shortage of drivers. According to the general director of Skif-Cargo Sergei Chernov, if in 2022 the company lacked about 10% of drivers, now it is 30%. Delko CEO Sanjar Ashuraliev talks about 10%, clarifying that there is a shortage of both CE category drivers and specialists who ensure the operation of transport: “The larger the transport company, the more noticeable the staff shortage.” HR Director of Courier Service Express Galina Kezikova notes that drivers for personal trucks and cars, corporate vehicles, couriers, and forwarders are “in acute shortage.” According to Dmitry Khrushchalev, Deputy General Director for Development of the Business Lines Group of Companies, the demand for category E drivers increased by 32%, categories B and C – by 39%.

The second category of workers for whom demand is growing is warehouse personnel. According to Sergei Chernov, the shortage of storekeepers has grown from 10% in 2022 to 50% in 2023. Dmitry Khrushchalev says that in 2023 the demand for warehouse workers has increased by 30%. In the goods delivery segment, warehouse employees and couriers remain the most in short supply, agrees Boxberry HR Director Galina Golovkova: “According to information from colleagues from other companies, many have a shortage of 30–40%.”

Ms. Golovkova doubts that the situation will improve in 2024:

“If previously we spent an average of seven days searching, now it can take up to 30 days (especially in the northern and eastern regions). The difficulty of finding a worker for a warehouse is comparable to recruiting a specialist.”

Galina Kezikova also notes a shortage of storekeepers, pickers, assemblers, loaders, and drivers of high-rise stackers. Director of Personnel and Communications of FM Logistic in Russia, Maria Shipovalova, observes in all regions of the company’s presence a high demand for operators of mechanized and automated warehouses, PC operators, drivers of reach trucks and freight transport.

Beta PRO HR Director Nadezhda Komissarova says that the shortage of warehouse personnel has been growing for three years, and in 2023 alone the need has increased by 50%: “If we take the first month of 2024, there are candidates on the market, but they have become extremely selective in their choice employer and the conditions offered.” Employers are increasingly having to lower the level of requirements and change payment terms more often in order to attract the right employees, she adds, also noting a change in the gender composition: “There are clearly fewer men, they are more selective.”

At the same time, according to Ms. Komissarova’s observations, the personnel crisis affected only warehouse workers – packers, pickers, dispatchers, drivers of stackers and loaders, as well as trucks of categories B and C. For line office personnel, line managers and office employees in general “ There is no acute shortage, nor is there any turnover.” Sanjar Ashuraliev adds that the shortage of fitters, mechanics, and welders is growing. However, a number of companies are talking about a shortage of management personnel. Thus, according to Dmitry Khrushchalev, warehouse managers, shift foremen and complex managers are in demand. At the end of the year, according to PEC, STS Logistics and Snow Queen, the demand for client managers, logisticians and managers of international multimodal transportation tripled.

Why is there not enough

“The personnel shortage was the result of the demographic crisis of the 1990s, as well as the result of a decrease in the number of foreign employees in Russia,” explains Victoria Tsoi, director of the personnel department of PEC. The decline in the birth rate in the 1990s led to an increase in the share of older job seekers today, SDEK confirms, and by 2030 the number of citizens in the age group 30–39 years is expected to decrease by 7 million people.

The need for personnel is growing, including due to the increase in the dynamics of cargo transportation, says Ekaterina Antsiferova, Deputy General Director for Commerce at Dalli: “We have seen an increase in courier delivery volumes, on the one hand, and a shortage of personnel, on the other.” At the same time, there is an outflow of employees to related segments, such as construction and online retail, adds Oksana Tarasenko, HR business partner at STS Logistics.

Elena Popova, Human Resources Business Partner at Noytech Supply Chain Solutions, adds that 2023 will see historically low unemployment: “The line staff labor market continues to be favorable for job seekers, with steady year-on-year growth in vacancies and low applicant ratios to open positions.”

In past years, the seasonal shortage of personnel could be compensated for by shift workers, Ms. Golovkova notes, but “now there are no donor regions: almost everywhere people are in demand locally, the majority are not interested in shift work.”

How expensive it is

The shortage of personnel leads to rising wages. According to HeadHunter, the median salary in logistics over the year increased by an average of 23%, to 66.5 thousand rubles, exceeding the expected salary (59 thousand rubles) by 13%. Since May 2023, industry-wide salary offers have continuously increased by an average of 3% per month, peaking at 77K in December. According to PEC, salaries of line personnel grew faster than the average in the labor market – by 30% at the end of the year. The level of remuneration for courier workers has increased the most – by 80% year-on-year, Dalli says.

According to Victoria Tsoi, in 2024, salaries in logistics may increase by another 20–30%. For example, at Skif-Cargo, which increased driver salaries by 30% by the end of 2023, another increase is planned in 2024 – by 40%, to an average of 200 thousand rubles. The network of mini-warehouses and express delivery service “Darkstar at Home” increased the salaries of assemblers by 26% in the last months of 2023. “In conditions of increased demand and growth in delivery volumes in the winter, we began to hire assemblers at higher rates in order to staff our warehouses, both new and existing,” emphasized the founder of the service, Kirill Chekanov, expecting that the rate of wage growth will slow down closer to fly.

Rising wages will also affect consumers. Alexey Ermakov, director of logistics at The Snow Queen, believes that this factor will increase the cost of logistics services by the end of 2024 by 8–10%.

Natalya Skorlygina