The wholesale price of gasoline on the stock exchange continues to fall

The wholesale price of gasoline on the stock exchange continues to fall, reaching the level of May, when the active fuel consumption season traditionally begins. This has a positive effect on the margins of retail sales, although due to problems with shipments, petroleum products at reduced prices reach gas stations with a long delay. But, according to experts, in general the market has already balanced.

The cost of wholesale quantities of AI-92 gasoline in the European part of Russia on October 30 decreased by 1.9% to 49.4 thousand rubles. per ton, follows from the data on St. Petersburg International Trading Exchange. Gasoline AI-95 fell in price by 1.61%, to 53.6 thousand rubles. per ton. Quotes reached such levels for the first time since the end of April. At this point, a seasonal increase in fuel demand usually begins.

The fall in gasoline prices, which began at the end of September amid the introduction of an export ban, returned marginality to gas stations, for which sales of most types of fuel became unprofitable in the summer.

“With such prices, retail is quite marginal, but prices in small wholesale have not yet fallen, and this is 80% of the market,” says Maxim Dyachenko, executive director of Petroleum Trading. And, he adds, problems remain with the shipment of large wholesale quantities of petroleum products, so that current exchange prices will “reach” gas stations only in one and a half to two months.

Logistical difficulties persist after oil companies, in search of any ways not to stop production at refineries amid an export ban, looked for any ways to store goods. As a result, both the tanks of the factories and the storage facilities of Transneft, as well as part of the fleet of railway tanks, were packed.

Diesel fuel is also getting cheaper: the summer grade fell on the stock exchange by 1.75%, to 55.7 thousand rubles. per ton, off-season – by 1.17%, to 58.3 thousand rubles. At the same time, the cost of winter diesel fuel, after two days of falling, again showed an increase of 2%, to 71.9 thousand rubles. per ton. According to the national index (reflecting data from all Russian refineries), during October the cost of winter diesel fuel did not fall below 73 thousand rubles. per ton. The average monthly price was 74.5 thousand rubles. per ton, which, according to Interfax calculations, is 8% higher than the figure for the same month in 2022.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak back in early October instructed oil companies should accelerate the replacement of summer diesel with winter and off-season diesel, increase its production, and regulators should monitor the cost in the retail segment and during shipments to farmers. Also was considered option to ban the export of jet fuel, which is used in the production of winter diesel fuel.

In general, Petromarket notes, the situation on the Russian fuel market is “close to absolutely healthy.”

In general, in 2023 the demand for winter diesel fuel there is estimated at 18.4 million tons, of which only 90% (16.5 million tons) will be covered by the factory product. The rest is usually covered by a surrogate product obtained by mixing jet fuel with summer or off-season diesel fuel or middle distillates. If there is a shortage of surrogate, the situation on the winter diesel fuel market will become truly tense, experts say, but they do not expect such a development of events and, accordingly, do not consider the introduction of an embargo on the export of jet fuel likely.

Olga Mordyushenko