The situation on the new buildings market for February 2024

Despite the decline in the activity of buyers of primary real estate, its average price in Russia continues to grow: over the month, new buildings in the largest regional markets rose in price by 1.5%. Although in Moscow and St. Petersburg there has nevertheless been a tendency to reduce prices. Due to the reduction of limits on preferential mortgages and the increase in deposit rates, new buildings have become generally less interesting for investors to purchase. But the market does not expect a pronounced decline in demand and prices in the long term, speaking of short-term uncertainty.

The average cost of new buildings in the 18 largest regional markets of Russia (16 cities with a population of over a million, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in February amounted to 164.5 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Over the month, the figure increased by 1.5%, exceeding the same dynamics over the previous 30 days – 1%, as calculated by CIAN.Analyst. According to Etazhi data, primary housing in Russia as a whole now costs an average of 129.9 thousand rubles. per sq. m, growth by January 1.83%. Avito Real Estate adds that the average cost of a lot is 6.89 million rubles. Over the month, the value increased by 0.5%, over the year – by 12.2%.

Most pronounced growth the average cost of housing per month in CIAN.Analytics was recorded In Nizhniy Novgorod – by 4.7%, up to 200.3 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Avito Real Estate noted an increase in the indicator in Omsk by 3.9%, to 119.8 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In Saratov, according to Etazhi data, new buildings rose in price by 2.8%, to 75.3 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In Moscowaccording to CIAN.Analysts estimates, the value, on the contrary, decreased by 0.2%, to 342.7 thousand rubles. per sq. m.V St. Petersburg — reduction by 2.2%, to 247.7 thousand rubles. per sq. m.

The head of CIAN.Analytics, Alexey Popov, believes that developers are now more likely to carefully index prices against the backdrop of declining demand. The expert draws attention to the fact that in the Moscow and St. Petersburg agglomerations the number of real transactions is lower than the background values ​​of last year. At the end of January, buyer activity decreased by 5.8% compared to the previous month and by 11.5% compared to the same period last year, notes Dmitry Alekseev, head of the primary direction of Avito Real Estate.

Sales Director of Etazhi Sergey Zaitsev does not rule out that demand in Moscow and St. Petersburg will be negatively affected in January turned out to be reduction from 12 million to 6 million rubles. maximum loan size under preferential mortgage programs.

In other cities, the expert sees relatively high activity, which rarely turns into transactions: developers try to stimulate them through special offers.

Potential buyers, according to Mr. Zaitsev, do not have a single strategy: some take a wait-and-see approach, while others, on the contrary, try to find an object faster. The situation remains uncertain for them, he notes. Yandex Real Estate Commercial Director Evgeny Belokurov suggests that investors are not interested in buying new buildings now due to rising deposit rates. In the short term, it is easier for holders of ruble capital to choose a deposit, he believes.

The number of offers on the primary market, according to Dmitry Alekseev, increased by 37.7% year-on-year; the most noticeable dynamics were in the studio segment – plus 60.3%. Despite the increase in supply, Mr. Popov notes a decrease in the activity of developers in terms of the number of new projects launched on the market, linking this both with seasonality and with the intensification of discussions with banks about the redistribution of commissions for issuing preferential loans. The volume of supply is growing due to projects from previous years, agrees Mr. Zaitsev. Development activity, in his opinion, strongly depends on the future of preferential programs: if they are significantly limited, the output of new projects will decrease.

Although Alexey Popov does not see any prospects for a further reduction in buyer activity: “The issuance of preferential mortgages has not stopped, many verbal interventions about the importance of maintaining a family mortgage have been made, and there has been no massive increase in prices.” The combination of these factors, according to the expert, should lead to an increase in the number of transactions in February-March.

Dmitry Alekseev does not rule out that buyers who have refused to purchase secondary housing due to rising mortgage rates will gradually reorient themselves to the primary market.

Evgeniy Belokurov does not expect noticeable price fluctuations, but does not rule out that developers will more actively stimulate buyers with various discounts and promotions. Mr. Zaitsev does not exclude the scenario of increasing discounts. Although in the long term, according to the expert, we may be talking about a reduction in available supply, which will restrain price increases even in conditions of limited demand.

Alexandra Mertsalova