The situation on the new buildings market for December 2023

The active withdrawal of new supply due to uncertainty about the future of preferential mortgage programs and limited demand during the holiday period stabilized the dynamics of prices for new buildings. The average supply price in the largest regional markets increased by only 1% over the month. Analysts expect further stagnation in prices, although a noticeable decline in demand is not expected until the second quarter.

The average cost of primary real estate in the 18 largest regional markets in Russia (16 cities with a population of over a million, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in January amounted to 163.1 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, increasing by 1% by December. Such data are cited in Cyan.Analytics, noting that the dynamics turned out to be more restrained than in the previous two months, when new buildings rose in price by 2.4% and 1.9% over 30 days. In Etazhi, the average cost of new buildings in Russia as a whole is estimated at 129.9 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. Over the month, the value increased by 4.4%, over the year – by 10.3%. Avito Real Estate adds that the average cost of a lot on the primary market in Russia is now 6.87 million rubles. Over the month, the value decreased by 0.4%, over the year it increased by 11%.

Most noticeable is the average cost new buildings, according to Cyan.Analytics, for the month grew In Perm – by 6.5%, to 129.6 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In Nizhniy Novgorod the dynamics are more restrained – 2.7%, up to 190.8 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In “Etazhi” they noticed an increase in the average cost by 4.4%, to 73.2 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, in Saratov. Avito Real Estate notes an increase of 2.3% per month, to 121 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, in Krasnoyarsk.

In Moscow, according to calculations by Cian.Analytics, new buildings are now exhibited at an average price of 343.3 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. This is 0.1% lower than the December value, but 10.1% higher than the January value of last year. Avito Real Estate adds that the average cost of an apartment on the primary market in Moscow is now 16 million rubles. Over the month, this figure decreased by 3%, over the year it increased by 15%. There are now 29% more available offers in the city than a year earlier, and 2% more than in December last year.

In general, the head of Cyan.Analytics, Alexey Popov, attributes the restrained dynamics of average prices to the large volume of new products released at the end of the year.

The number of available lots per month, according to his calculations, increased by 9%. “This is one of the most pronounced increases over the past three years,” the expert notes. Mr. Popov notes that in the Moscow region in December sales started in 84 buildings with an area of ​​1.38 million square meters. m is the maximum figure for ten years. Sales Director at Etazhey Sergei Zaitsev explains: many developers are now trying to bring to the market the maximum volume of supply in order to have time to implement it within the current lending conditions. “The long-term strategy is still unclear,” he says.

Buyer activity was quite restrained. The head of the primary direction of Avito Real Estate, Dmitry Alekseev, notes that over the month, buyer demand decreased by 28%. True, the dynamics are largely dictated by the New Year holidays: year on year demand grew by 4%. Most noticeable in Krasnoyarsk, Krasnodar, Moscow and Omsk, Mr. Alekseev lists. In general, demand, according to him, is now mainly influenced by the situation with mortgage lending, with the caveat that primary housing has an advantage over secondary housing due to the availability of preferential programs. Based on this, Dmitry Alekseev does not predict a significant decrease in buyer activity. Alexey Popov adds that so far the market is registering transactions that were approved even before the tightening of conditions for preferential programs.

Mr. Popov expects stagnation of average prices on the primary market: “When demand is low, the activity of developers in indexing prices and providing discounts usually balance each other out.”

Although the expert does not rule out that pricing in the next one or two months may also be affected by attempts by banks postpone for developers to pay commissions on preferential mortgage loans. Sergei Zaitsev also hopes for stabilization of the achieved price values. Buyer activity, he predicts, will remain at a fairly high level throughout the first quarter, while the second is likely to see a cooling. “Both a decrease in the availability of mortgage loans and an increase in the terms of sales on the secondary market, as well as the saturation of the needs of buyers, will have an impact; sales were proceeding at an accelerated pace,” he argues.

Alexandra Mertsalova