The shortage of vaccines and eggs at poultry farms affects the rise in prices for poultry meat and eggs

The situation in the poultry industry, which has affected the prices of chicken and eggs and has become one of the topics of Vladimir Putin’s direct line, is getting worse. From June to October, poultry farm herds lag behind last year’s levels, and monthly meat and egg output declines year on year. The market explains the dynamics by interruptions in the import of hatching eggs and tightening rules for the circulation of foreign vaccines. Regulators promise that by the end of the year, production dynamics will be positive.

The number of poultry in Russian factories, which remained above last year’s level in January-May 2023, has been declining since June compared to the same months of 2022, according to Rosstat data.

• If in the first five months of the year the figure was 0.4–2.8% higher than last year, then in June–October it decreased to 462.7 million birds, which is 3.2% less year on year.

Production of poultry meat and eggs has also been declining in recent months.

• From July to October, poultry farms produced 526–557 thousand tons of meat per month, 0.9–3.5% less than a year earlier, and egg production in September and October decreased by 1.1% and 0.9%, up to 3.09–3.18 million units accordingly, according to Rosstat.

The Cherkizovo group and GAP Resurs declined to comment. The National Union of Poultry Farmers (NSP) and the Rosptitsesoyuz did not respond to Kommersant.

Prices for poultry meat and eggs have been rising at double-digit rates in recent months. Over the year, as of the end of November, according to Rosstat, chilled and frozen chicken increased in price by 29.26%, chicken eggs – by 40.29%. Vladimir Putin on a straight line On December 14, he called the situation with egg prices a “failure in the work of the government,” explaining the dynamics by increased demand. The Ministry of Agriculture said that they are studying the possibility of zeroing out import duties on eggs from “friendly” countries, working on transferring producers and networks to long-term contracts and increasing production.

Kommersant’s interlocutor at the market claims that interruptions in the import of hatching eggs from March to December 2022 led to a decrease in livestock and production this year. Last year, the import of eggs into the Russian Federation decreased by 34%, to 400 million pieces, according to NSP estimates from the Veterinary and Life publication. In January-October, according to data from market participants, imports decreased by another 28%, to 228.3 million units.

Another Kommersant source in the industry explains the drop in performance in the poultry industry by restrictions on the circulation of foreign vaccines introduced this year, due to which some companies could reduce supplies.

“A less healthy bird weighs less, therefore, the volume of meat supply and egg productivity are lower,” explains Kommersant’s interlocutor. Director of Yakov and Partners Alexey Kletsko points out that this year the situation with the spread of bird flu has worsened and outbreaks of Newcastle disease have been recorded.

From September 1, 2023, supplies of veterinary drugs to the Russian Federation are permitted only from those foreign enterprises that have been tested for compliance with the requirements of good manufacturing practice (GMP). According to another Kommersant source in the industry, some vaccines from the American MSD Animal Health and Elanco have not yet passed such certification. The Association of Veterinary Pharmaceutical Manufacturers (includes MSD, Boehringer Ingelheim, Zoetis) says that another 14 types of vaccines are expected to be imported into the Russian Federation, mainly for poultry.

President of Agrifood Strategies Albert Davleev notes that problems with a decrease in livestock and a shortage of vaccines can be solved within six months by facilitating access to foreign veterinary drugs. According to his forecasts, in the first six months of 2024, the poultry population could increase by 3–5%, including due to an increase in stocking density.

The only way to saturate the market with eggs is through imports, but the problem will resolve itself after the New Year with a decrease in demand, the expert adds.

Rosselkhoznadzor told Kommersant that there is no shortage of vaccines against the most common and economically significant infectious diseases of birds. In the case of the most “sensitive” foreign medicines, the service is discussing with the authorities of “friendly” countries the possibility of entering the Russian Federation, they added. The Ministry of Agriculture reported to Kommersant that according to the results of January-October, poultry production increased to 5.4 million tons, and eggs – to 31.7 billion pieces, and positive dynamics are expected for the entire year. They added that the volumes of domestic production and import of vaccines for critical items cover the needs.

Ekaterina Rakitina