The ruble started the new week with strengthening

Verbal interventions by representatives of financial authorities and business supported the Russian currency. As a result of Monday’s trading, the dollar exchange rate fell by 2.7 rubles to 95.08 rubles/$. This is facilitated by the increased supply of currency from speculators who decided to take profits without waiting for the announcement of new support measures and currency sales by the Central Bank. Analysts assume a short-term decline in the dollar exchange rate to 93 rubles/$/

The ruble started the new week with strengthening. Already during the morning session of the Moscow Exchange, the dollar exchange rate dropped by more than 1 ruble, to 96.72 rubles/$. During the main trading, the decline continued, and at the end of the day the rate stopped at 95.08 rubles/$, having lost 2.7 rubles during the day. This is the largest decline in 2023. The euro exchange rate lost 2.3 rubles per day. and dropped to 102.35 rubles/€. The yuan fell in price by 25 kopecks. and closed at RUB 13.02/CNY.

Currency trading was quite active, but without the excitement typical of strong market movements. The volume of dollar trading for delivery “tomorrow” exceeded 114 billion rubles, which was only slightly higher than the daily average in August. Yuan trading volume was slightly lower than the previous month’s average, amounting to RUB 135 billion.

The strengthening of the ruble, which emerged last Friday, continued against the backdrop of “continued verbal interventions on the part of the authorities,” notes Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank. On Friday, the Bank of Russia announced that from September 14 to 22 it will sell currency worth 150 billion rubles, that is, more than 21 billion rubles. in a day. This is due to the upcoming redemption of sovereign Eurobonds on September 16, payment for which will be made in rubles, some of which can be converted back into foreign currency.

On Monday in an interview with RBC Chairman of the Board of VTB Andrey Kostin spoke in favor of introducing limits on the transfer of funds abroad in rubles. Such transfers, unlike currency transfers, are not limited in volume, and therefore, according to the head of the state bank, they can be used for subsequent conversion into foreign currency. At the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF), Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Guznov said that the regulator is considering different options for currency regulation, including capital flows. The fact that the government and the Central Bank are working on similar measures was stated at the WEF by Russian Presidential Assistant Maxim Oreshkin.

All these statements, says Sovcombank chief analyst Mikhail Vasiliev, could become a signal for speculators to close positions against the ruble. This is indirectly indicated by the high trading volume in the morning session, when there are no major players on the market. It amounted to almost 18 billion rubles, which is almost twice the average value last week.

According to Vladimir Evstifeev, from the point of view of speculative strategies, the approach of the dollar exchange rate to the level of 100 rubles/$ deprives it of further weakening potential, therefore the most logical volatility is in the range of 94–99 rubles/$.

Having fixed profitable currency positions, speculators, according to Polina Khvoinitskaya, head of investment strategy and analytics at Expobank, began to look for ideas in the bond market, which they will probably implement after the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia on Friday. From the meeting she expects a rate increase of 2–3 percentage points (pp). According to Mikhail Vasiliev, the Central Bank will consider the possibility of raising the rate by 1 percentage point and 3 percentage points. “The final decision of the regulator will depend on the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate and inflation data by the day of the meeting,” he notes.

In such conditions, the Russian currency has every chance of strengthening. Ms. Khvoynitskaya does not rule out a decrease in the dollar exchange rate to 93 rubles/$. Until the end of the month, she expects trading in the expanded range of 93–97 rubles/$. In October, the expert believes, the situation may change for the better for the Russian currency against the backdrop of increased export income due to rising commodity prices on world markets.

Vitaly Gaidaev