The results of the autumn months in the collective investment market turned out to be worse than the summer months

The autumn months blurred the positive picture of the summer on the collective investment market. The results of mutual funds were affected by the slowdown in the growth of the Russian stock market against the backdrop of a tightening of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia. The best performance was demonstrated by funds with a high proportion of shares of oil and gas companies, which benefited from high energy prices. At the same time, American stock funds turned out to be outsiders, both due to lower quotes and the strengthening of the ruble. Managers expect a resumption of growth in the value of Russian shares against the backdrop of high oil prices, as well as the redomiciliation of companies.

Hard reversal

The results of the autumn months in the collective investment market were noticeably worse than in the summer months. According to Investfunds, in September-October, out of 141 large retail funds (OPIFs and BPIFs with assets over 500 million rubles), only 49 funds brought income to shareholders. At the same time, only five retail funds had an average income of more than 3%, and the best fund showed an income of 6.4%. During the summer months, fund shares grew by an average of 5%, with the best showing double-digit returns.

The weak result is largely due to the end of the growth of the Russian stock market against the background of the tightening of the monetary policy of the Central Bank. After growing by almost 20% in the summer months and reaching a one-and-a-half year high (3,287 points) in early autumn, by mid-September the Moscow Exchange index fell below 3,000 points. In the following weeks, it regained some of the lost ground and at the end of October closed at 3201 points, which is 0.8% lower than the end of summer values.

Hard Currency

Actively managed funds focused on companies in the oil and gas industry, as well as mutual funds with a high share of such shares, outperformed the market. Shares of such funds grew by 1–6%.

The outsiders included mutual funds of electric power and metallurgy companies, whose shares declined after rising since the beginning of the year. At the end of the reporting period, shares of such funds lost 3–9.5% in price. But even taking into account this correction, the funds are still showing strong results since the beginning of the year (40–60% growth).

The worst performance was demonstrated by shares of foreign stock funds, which lost 3–14% in price. Moreover, the leaders of the fall were funds focused on investing in shares of American companies.

At the end of two months, the S&P 500 index fell by almost 7%, falling below the level of 4200 points. “Investors are fixing their positions against the backdrop of the worsening Arab-Israeli conflict, as well as unclear prospects for further economic growth after a long cycle of rate increases,” notes Andrey Alekseev, portfolio manager of Pervaya Management Company. The strengthening of the ruble had an additional negative revaluation on currency mutual funds of shares. Since the beginning of autumn, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange has decreased by 2.6 rubles, to 93.4 rubles/$.

Currency revaluation also led to a decrease in the value of mutual funds focused on investing in gold. According to Investfunds, they fell in price by 2.4–3.2%.

The fight against overestimation

Despite the strengthening of the ruble, bond funds, whose assets include Eurobonds, substitute bonds and yuan bonds, ended the reporting period in the positive zone. Shares of such funds increased in price by up to 3%. “The negative currency revaluation was compensated by the increase in the value of the fund’s assets,” explains Viktor Bark, director of the asset management department of Alfa Capital Management Company. The Replacement Bond Index, a benchmark for many such funds, has risen nearly 8% since early fall.

The outsiders were ruble bond funds. According to Investfunds, the bulk of mutual funds of corporate bonds or with a dominant share of such securities showed a decrease in the value of the unit by up to 3%. At the same time, the cost of shares of mutual funds of government bonds decreased to 3.8%. Over two months, the Moscow Exchange corporate bond index RUCBTRNS decreased by 2.4%, and the government bond index RGBITR – by 3.6%. Since the beginning of autumn, the regulator has increased the key rate twice (by a total of 300 bp), which, in turn, has led to a decrease in bond prices; accordingly, the cost of shares of bond funds is also decreasing,” notes Andrey Alekseev.

Barrel to the rescue

In the next month, according to portfolio managers, the situation on the Russian market will not change much. “The determining factor for ruble bond funds will be subsequent decisions of the Central Bank, which, in turn, will depend on emerging macroeconomic data, in particular on inflation,” notes Mr. Bark.

At the same time, the Russian stock market, led by oil and gas companies, will feel much better thanks to high oil prices and a weak ruble. On Friday, according to Investing.com, the price of Brent oil was $86.8 per barrel. This result, although 11% lower than the late September maximum, is 12% higher than the values ​​at the beginning of the year and 25% higher than the levels at the beginning of summer.

A factor that can support growth in the Russian market is the redomiciliation of a significant number of private Russian companies, mainly from the IT sector. “Transferring companies to Russian jurisdiction will remove risks for investors, which will help reveal the fundamental value of shares,” notes Andrey Alekseev.

Vitaly Gaidaev