The population chose the savings model – Kommersant FM
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About 55% of the country’s residents prefer saving to spending, according to the Central Bank. The last time the share of those who want to save money was so high was in March. This is a negative trend for business. Consumer behavior creates risks of decreased business activity and reduced production. However, as Kommersant FM found out, not all entrepreneurs are pessimistic. With details – Ivan Khorushevsky.
The savings model of behavior of Russians is now in the hands of the Central Bank. Supply has not kept pace with the growing demand in recent months, which is why inflation in the country has accelerated, the regulator explained. The Central Bank has been fighting rising prices for three months now by raising the key rate.
Deposits for the population become more attractive, loans for businesses become more expensive, and in total this reduces consumer and business activity, cooling the market. At least that’s how it should be in theory. But in practice, everything is a little different, notes Oleg Ponomarev, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Spar Kaliningrad retail chain:
“Regular consumption only adjusted for weather. When it’s colder, sales increase in volume; when it’s warmer, the average bill increases. The products don’t care. Food markets in almost the entire country are balanced. We have perfect competition, that is, the quantity of demand approximately corresponds to the quantity of supply.”
Russians actually hardly cut back on spending on food, as well as on education, a recent survey by the Superjob service showed. But they try to give up entertainment, travel, gifts and some everyday goods. There is no time for them now, when it is unclear what will happen to real wages, income dynamics and the political agenda, economists explain. It’s paradoxical, but consumers don’t want to save on beauty, Timur Begichev, the owner of Timur Begichev’s Beauty Studio, told Kommersant FM:
“I didn’t notice that people began to allocate less funds for services. Maybe there is nothing much to spend on, and citizens are investing in themselves, in beauty – this is one of the few non-basic needs, pleasure.”
It seems that if not on beauty, then on expensive purchases, spending should decrease. The regulator also talks about this. And Vedomosti and Avtostat report falling sales of smartphones and cars. But some consumers, on the contrary, try to purchase valuable goods as quickly as possible, fearing an increase in their cost. Or repair existing ones, says the head of the Automotive Service Network, Pavel Filkin:
“Now people are trying to buy spare parts themselves, do something themselves, and accordingly, they save on this. But the flow is by no means falling; on the contrary, it has increased. Customers understand perfectly well that it is better to invest a certain amount of money in their old car and continue to drive it, rather than buy a new one for which there is no money. Representatives of the middle class come and do the full amount of work, regardless of the amount.”
The Central Bank admits that demand has not yet cooled in all industries. According to the regulator, the economy transmits its decisions with a time lag. So consumer activity will continue to decline for several quarters. Although the first effects of tightening monetary policy are already noticeable, says Timur Nigmatullin, senior investment consultant at Finam:
“We see this indirectly in the statistics of the banking sector, in the structure of the M2 money supply. Households take money from current accounts and invest it in deposits. Considering the rigidity of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia, which is struggling with a very powerful fiscal stimulus that provokes inflation, the targeting mechanism is working.”
The savings model will definitely remain with Russians until 2024. The Central Bank said it would not cut the key rate before this date. However, budget spending should increase in 2024. This means that the spiral of history and inflation may well unwind again.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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