The money was placed in warehouses – Kommersant FM
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Investors have invested 850 billion rubles in Russian commercial real estate. This is an absolute market record. The increase compared to 2022 will be almost 90%. These forecasts are given by analysts from the consulting company CORE.XP. According to their data, almost 60% of investments fell on Moscow, 18% settled in St. Petersburg, and the rest was divided between the regions. What kind of profitability do offices and warehouses bring? And what options do investors have? Aelita Kurmukova found out.
The payback period for commercial real estate in Moscow is on average 10 years. But some segments, for example, offices, promise a return on capital within seven years if purchased at the foundation pit stage, according to Kommersant FM’s interlocutors. But the residential one will be replenished no sooner than in 20 years. Hence the increased interest in commercial properties. It is not surprising that prices have increased, says Dmitry Klapsha, CEO of the consulting company Remain:
“Minimum prices – from 350 thousand rubles. per square meter. Objects in the area of Kutuzovsky Prospekt or Khodynka – more than 400 thousand per square meter. And this is actually a pit. In Moscow City – over 600 thousand per square meter. Prices are already quite high, and these facilities have not yet been introduced. Secondary sales have not started yet, we will begin to see them next year. For now, these are all speculative acquisitions in projects under construction.”
In three to four years, about 10 projects will appear in Moscow in top business locations, adds Klapsha. Some lots have already been sold to small players. As they say in the market, “sliced into small pieces.” This scheme is beneficial to both developers and investors. Due to high business activity, there has already been a shortage of small Class A offices – from 50 to 150 square meters, said analysts from the developer Stone. And the fewer offers, the higher the price. In just two years, such lots have risen in price by 30-40%, says Irina Zharova-Wright, managing partner of IG Sesegar:
“The gain from any project in the business cluster area for an investor who enters at an early stage will be at least 20%. There are blocks worth 30-40 million rubles. The largest transaction for a private person is 1.5 billion rubles. In 2023, a person purchased several floors in an office center for rent and created a small pension fund.”
Investors are guided by the needs of tenants. And in the top preferences is everything in the area of the Belorussky Station, Krasnaya Presnya, Moscow City and the Leningrad Corridor. Prices are rising so much that it is more profitable to buy than to rent, says Nikoliers agency partner Vladimir Sergunin:
“The market for office real estate purchased for own use has been super active over the past two years. This trend will only grow. And in 2024 I see no reason for its weakening. All kinds of oil, resource, and IT companies buy offices for 300 thousand rubles. per square meter. And rent costs this same organization approximately 40 thousand rubles. in year. But in 7.5 years it pays off, the yield is about 13% per annum.”
Buyers of warehouse space are guided by the same approach. Unlike offices, they are usually built on a turnkey basis for a specific customer. And against the backdrop of expensive loans, there are not many new projects. For the first time in history, there is a shortage of warehouses on the market, emphasizes Irina Ushakova, senior director of CORE.XP, head of the consulting services platform and the investment and capital markets department:
“If we talk about the rental rates with which we started 2023, they were at the level of 6 thousand rubles. per square meter. Towards the end of the year, the limit of 8 thousand rubles had already been passed. per square meter. The warehouse segment is in demand among funds that want to place their money in high-quality, reliable assets. Return on investment is in the range of eight to 10 years.”
If we talk about transactions, it is difficult to enter the high-quality warehouse segment with less than 1 billion rubles, adds Ushakova. The upper limit for mid-December is 20 billion rubles. But the growth of rental rates in the new year will apparently slow down, and investors will have to accept lower returns.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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