The Ministry of Industry and Trade predicted a two-fold drop in demand for aluminum and copper in Russia

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, copper consumption in Russia in 2022 will fall to about 220,000 – 250,000 tons, aluminum – to 720,000 – 760,000 tons, informs RBC with reference to the draft strategy for the development of the metallurgical industry until 2030. Such a drop means that the demand for these metals will fall by half.

Copper and aluminum are non-ferrous metals. In Russia, the production capacity of such metals is now redundant, so exports will remain the main direction in the development of the industry, since these metals are not subject to sanctions, follows from the draft strategy.

Also falling demand will affect zinc and lead. Lead consumption is expected to drop to 91,000 tons (21% drop), zinc to 190,000-220,000 (15-27% drop, depending on scenarios). At the same time, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is convinced that lead exports will fall by 45% to 70,000 tons, and zinc is practically not exported.

Among the major players in the production of lead in Russia is the Fregat plant, the only zinc producer in the country is UMMC.

In the II quarter of 2022, prices for non-ferrous metals in the world fell by 24% and reached the level of March 2021. This was the first quarterly decline in the index since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic and the strongest since 2008, when the fall reached 30-40%. Tin fell most of all – by 38% to $26,600/t, aluminum fell in price by 30% to $2434/t, nickel fell by 28% to $23,010/t, zinc – by 23% to $3208/t, copper – by 21% to $8228/t, lead – by 21% to $1908/t.

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