The Ministry of Finance predicts the strengthening of the ruble to 94.3 per dollar by the end of the year – Kommersant

In its new forecast, the Ministry of Finance expects the ruble to strengthen – 94.3 rubles/$ by the end of 2023 due to the restoration of import dynamics. This is stated in the document “Main directions of budget, tax and customs tariff policies for 2024 and for the planning period of 2025 and 2026” (.pdf). Today the dollar exchange rate has reached 96.8 rubles/$.

“The ruble exchange rate will be determined primarily by the dynamics of the balance of payments. At the end of 2023, it is predicted to gradually strengthen to the level of 94.3 rubles/$ (associated mainly with the restoration of import dynamics),” the document says. At the same time, for the period 2024–2026, the department forecasts exchange rate dynamics at the level of 90–92 rubles/$.

The GDP indicator in 2023 will be at +2.8%, in 2024 economic growth will continue, GDP will be at +2.3%, remaining at this limit until approximately 2026. The department explains the GDP growth by the restoration of domestic demand, including through import substitution.

The agency also expects a recovery in consumer demand (+5.8% in 2023) due to several factors: growth in real wages (+6.2% in 2023 after +0.3% a year earlier); real disposable income of the population (+4.3% after 1.0% a year earlier).

High demand for labor, as previously mentioned by the head of the Ministry of Economy Maxim Reshetnikov, in 2024–2026 will contribute to an increase in the standard of living of the population (2.5%, 2.6% and 2.3% in 2024, 2025 and 2026, respectively – real wages; 2.7%, 2.6% and 2.6% – real disposable income of the population).

Due to high demand and rising wages against the backdrop of an imbalance between supply and demand, the growth rate of consumer prices in 2023 will be increased – about +5.8% on average in annual terms. However, “the pursuit of responsible monetary and fiscal policies” should lead to inflation returning to the 4% target.

Indicators similar to this forecast earlier presented to the Ministry of Economy.

Current dollar and euro rates, as well as quotes for the main indices and shares on the Moscow Exchange are available on a special page.

Anastasia Larina