The market anticipated “Gazprom”

The Moscow Exchange Index for the first time in two months exceeded the level of 2300 points. The steady growth of the Russian market continued almost throughout August against the backdrop of a recovery in oil prices and positive macroeconomic indicators, and on August 30 it was pushed by the shares of Gazprom, which announced large interim dividends in the evening. Analysts expect growth to continue on August 31, when the decision of the gas monopoly will be fully won back by the market.

The Moscow Exchange Index during trading on August 30 reached 2314.53 points. It has not risen to this height since June 30, when the index collapsed by 7% by the decision of Gazprom shareholders not to pay annual dividends (see chart). “Kommersant” dated July 1). As a result of August 30, the index stopped at 2306.62 points, which is 0.45% higher than Monday’s closing values.

For most of the outgoing month, Gazprom shares remained outsiders in the oil and gas sector. However, at the auction on August 30, they rose by 7.3%, and since the beginning of the week, growth has exceeded 11%. The surge took place at the high activity of investors and without significant official reasons, and on August 30, the volume of trading in shares amounted to almost 22.2 billion rubles, four times higher than the result on August 29.

Kommersant’s sources among portfolio managers explain the dynamics of the monopoly’s shares by rumors of dividends – and indeed, after the close of exchange trading, Gazprom announced that its board of directors recommended paying interim dividends in the amount of 51.03 rubles. per share. It’s only 1.5 rubles. lower than the payment recommended by the SD in May (52.53 rubles).

However, there are other reasons for the growth of the index. Thus, market participants note the increased activity of private investors, who, as Konstantin Asaturov, managing director of the department for working with shares of Sistema Capital Management Company, notes, “come back as the yield on conservative instruments falls and semi-annual deposits at high rates end.”

Private investors are attracted by the undervaluation of the Russian stock market against the backdrop of rising oil prices.

Since the beginning of August, the cost of Russian Urals oil has risen by almost 40% to $86 per barrel, which has narrowed the spread with Brent to 18%. At such oil prices, says Yaroslav Kalugin, a trader in the stock market operations department of IC Veles Capital, the oil and gas sector “feels quite confident.”

Expectations on interim dividends for such companies as Tatneft, NOVATEK, LUKOIL, Rosneft have strengthened on the market, Andranik Manovyan, an analyst at Ingosstrakh Investments Management Company, clarifies. Shares of these companies have grown by 6-14% since the beginning of August.

In addition, the depth and duration of the recession in the Russian economy “turned out to be not as catastrophic as it initially looked, which stimulates interest in the stock market,” Oleg Syrovatkin, a leading analyst at Otkritie Investments’ global research department, believes. Adds optimism to the reporting season, which for many companies exceed analysts’ expectations.

In addition, analysts say, “new ideas have begun to appear on the market,” which contributes to the arrival of long-term investors. Mr. Syrovatkin refers to them the construction and IT sectors, which enjoy state support.

Market participants expect trading to open strongly higher on August 31, supported by Gazprom shares, as the proposed payout is in line with a 25% dividend yield. This news, according to Yan Melnichuk, a personal broker at BCS World of Investments, will cause an overall increase, as it “removes the negative background in terms of the previous refusal to pay.”

In the longer term, the situation on the market will depend on the development of the situation in Ukraine and the start of the embargo on Russian oil. Oleg Syrovatkin notes that in the absence of a serious negative, such as a noticeable decrease in Russian exports, the stock market has good chances to continue growing.

Vitaly Gaidaev