Gazprom unexpectedly decided to pay dividends

On the evening of August 30, after the close of trading on the Moscow Exchange, the board of directors of Gazprom recommended paying dividends for the first half of the year in the amount of 51.03 rubles. per share and announced an extraordinary meeting of shareholders. The gas company announced this in its telegram channel.

This recommendation was given taking into account “strong financial results and a significant liquidity reserve on the balance sheet,” Famil Sadigov, deputy chairman of the board of Gazprom, quotes in the company’s message. Gazprom’s revenue and profit under IFRS for the first half of the year were a record, he said: net profit under IFRS amounted to 2.5 trillion rubles, and the dividend base – 2.4 trillion rubles.

The total amount of payments on interim dividends can reach about 1.25 trillion rubles. – the company pays 50% of the company’s adjusted IFRS net income in accordance with its divisional policy. “Gazprom“In the future, he intends to adhere to the current dividend policy,” Sadigov said.

Despite the fact that the recommendation to pay dividends “Gazprom” said after the market closed, the company’s shares began a sharp rally on the Moscow Exchange after 16:00 Moscow time and, according to the results of trading, closed with an increase of 7.4% to 204 rubles. per share, while the entire Moscow Exchange index added 0.45% at the end of the day.

The volume of trading in securities on August 30 exceeded 22 billion rubles, while on all other days of August the maximum was 8.8 billion rubles. Growth could be organized by insiders, Viktor Tunev, chief analyst of Ingosstrakh-Investments Management Company, does not exclude. 22 billion rubles – this is the maximum from July 1, when “Gazprom» refused to pay previously announced dividends [за 2021 г.]he explains.

Vedomosti sent a request to the Bank of Russia.

The Gazprom dividend story surprised the stock market in early summer. In May, the Board of Directors of the company recommended that shareholders pay 52.53 rubles at the end of 2021. dividend per share. The total amount was to be 1.24 trillion rubles. (50% of the company’s adjusted IFRS net profit) and set a record for the entire Russian stock market. Dividend yield was estimated by analysts at 18%.

But already on June 30, Gazprom shareholders refused to pay dividends for 2021. At the same time, the company will pay a temporary surcharge to the mineral extraction tax (MET) in the amount of 1.2 trillion rubles to the budget, which actually equaled the proposed dividends.

Shares of Gazprom on the day of refusal of payments collapsed by 30% (207 rubles). On June 29, shares were worth 297.65, and on August 30, Gazprom’s papers were still 31.5% cheaper, even taking into account the growth on news of interim dividends.

The dividend yield of the company’s shares at the closing price on August 30 (204 rubles) is 25%, the total dividend yield for 2022 may be 28.6%, write the authors of the Solid Figures investment telegram channel.

With a high degree of probability, the shares of Gazprom will continue to grow, as 51.03 rubles. per share, that’s about a 25% return, says the personal broker “BCS The World of Investments” Yan Melnichuk. In general, this should cause a general growth in the market and remove the negative background in terms of dividend payments, he believes.

The reason for the strong growth of Gazprom’s securities remained unclear throughout the trading session, the analyst for commodity markets draws attention.Opening Investments” Oksana Lukicheva. The decision of the gas company surprised her: “No one expected it to be like this. The decision has already been made, I think tomorrow there will be a correction in fact.

The newly recommended dividends are not a surprise, because such a scenario was not ruled out, says Yaroslav Kabakov, director of strategy at Finam Investment Company. But the bet on this, taking into account all the probabilities, is comparable to the risks at the level of venture projects, he believes: in addition to the dividend yield, the company also has a dividend policy, and it is either predictable and encouraged by high capitalization, or vice versa.

Alexander Frolov, deputy general director of the National Energy Institute, calls the decision to pay interim dividends “atypical” for Gazprom, since the gas monopoly’s dividend policy previously did not provide for two payments per year. In the same time “Gazprom Neft”, on the contrary, adhered to a two-time payment. “The decision can be explained by the fact that the financial result for the first half of the year exceeded all expectations due to high gas prices. It is comparable to the amount that “Gazprom“I was going to use it to pay dividends for the whole of 2021,” he explains.

At the same time, Frolov notes that the financial results of the second half of 2022 may allow the company to adhere to the current dividend policy and make recommendations to the board of directors on the payment of at least 50% of adjusted net profit.

Tunev is waiting for the market to open on Wednesday, significantly higher than the previous close of 204 rubles: the shares can quickly return to the range of 250-300 rubles, and after the shareholders’ meeting before the cutoff, grow even more.