The investment program of JSC Russian Railways in 2024 may grow by 7%

The investment program of JSC Russian Railways in 2024 may grow by 7%, to 1.27 trillion rubles, while maintaining the focus on the development of the Eastern training ground, where it is planned to allocate 366 billion rubles, the purchase of locomotives and infrastructure renewal. Also, JSC Russian Railways expects a moderate increase in loading – by 1.7% compared to the expected results for 2023, an increase in profit, EBITDA and debt. According to experts, the growth of the tariff is faster than the growth of the investment program, but this is understandable, since operating costs, including labor costs, are also increasing.

“Kommersant” got acquainted with the preliminary version of the investment program of JSC Russian Railways for 2024. In total, its volume is planned at the level of 1.275 trillion rubles, as follows from the materials seen by Kommersant. This is 7% more than expenses for 2023, which this week were increased by a decision of the board of directors of the monopoly from 1.1 trillion to 1.19 trillion rubles, but 14% less than what was planned for 2024 in the three-year investment program approved at the end of last year (RUB 1.48 trillion). Russian Railways declined to comment.

Investments in the main construction project of JSC Russian Railways – the development of the Eastern training ground – are planned to be reduced relative to previous plans, but they will remain at a high level, 366 billion rubles, and will exceed the record investments of this year by 41% (260.2 billion rubles, which, in turn, queue, 88.5% higher than in 2021). At the same time, investments in the development of the Central Transport Hub will be reduced by almost half compared to the actual investments in 2023 and previously envisaged for 2024 – 98 billion rubles are planned to be invested in it. against 193.1 billion rubles. investments in 2023 and a plan for 2024 of 181 billion rubles. Investments in the development of approaches to the ports of the Azov-Black Sea basin will double – up to 43 billion rubles. At the level of 29 billion rubles. investments are expected in the development of the ports of the North-West, which is slightly more than previously planned.

The monopoly plans to invest 425 billion rubles in updating the infrastructure. Relative to 2023, investments under this item will increase by 11%, and not by 30%, as previously planned, but last year lower investments were expected in 2023 and higher ones in 2024. Investments in the renewal of rolling stock will increase slightly relative to the planned ones – up to 229 billion rubles. at 200 billion rubles. in 2023.

The loading plan for 2023 remains at 1243.8 million tons. If at the beginning of the year JSC Russian Railways expected it to fall by 2.5% by 2022, then by June expectations gave way to more optimistic ones and suggest an increase of 0.8% (for more details, see Kommersant on September 11). The actual growth for nine months was 0.6%. In 2024, the monopoly also expects a moderate increase in loading to 1265.4 million tons, or 1.7%. Freight turnover should increase more noticeably – by 3.4%, to 3.4 trillion ton-kilometers.

As for the financial plan, from the parameters available to Kommersant it follows that Russian Railways plans to end the year with a profit of 96 billion rubles. and increase this figure to 122 billion rubles. in 2024. EBITDA in 2024 will grow by 24%, to RUB 830 billion, from RUB 667 billion planned for 2023. Net debt will continue to grow – up to 2.9 trillion rubles. (up to 3.3 trillion rubles, including perpetual bonds), the debt/EBITDA ratio will also increase – from 3.3 in 2023 to 3.5 in 2024.

In 2024, the tariff will grow faster than investment, notes the head of Infoline-Analytics, Mikhail Burmistrov. Let us remind you that the tariff increase is planned for 2024 by 10.75% (see “Kommersant” on September 25). According to the expert, this is understandable, since the operating costs of Russian Railways are increasing and it would be very dangerous not to invest in personnel, where the company begins to lose to competitors in terms of wages. The cost of upgrading rolling stock should be seen in the context of the fact that prices for it are rising sharply, and a modest increase in this item may mean a quantitative decrease in purchases or price pressure on suppliers. The focus of infrastructure investments is logical – according to Mr. Burmistrov, Russian Railways will be able to absorb the 366 billion rubles announced for the Eastern training ground, although this is a very ambitious figure. This year, apparently, 260 billion rubles will be spent on this construction site. As for the increase in loading, the expert believes that everything will depend on the situation at the Eastern training ground. “It is clear that it is difficult to build a lot and transport a lot at the same time, but there are problems that can be solved at the level of operational interaction with shippers,” he says, noting that this year at least 1% of loading volume was lost due to operational inefficiency.

Natalya Skorlygina