The head of VTB predicts the dollar exchange rate at 150–250 with a double ruble exchange rate
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The head of VTB Kostin, Andrey Kostin, said that the introduction of two ruble exchange rates could lead to a large difference between them in dollar terms. Thus, one course will cost 150 rubles/$, the other – 250 rubles/$. According to him, it is necessary to limit ourselves to existing currency control measures.
“But in principle, I am against moving to any tough administrative measures. If we introduce two ruble exchange rates, one will be 150 and the other will be 250, that’s for sure. Therefore, this should not be done,” Andrei Kostin said at the International Banking Forum in Sochi (his words are quoted by RBC).
Andrei Kostin believes that it is necessary to continue to comply with the currency control measures that the Central Bank has already implemented, and “gradually return to lower rates, to a more stable situation.”
“I believe that we have an unusual situation, an unusual market situation. We have too many geopolitical factors influencing us for us to be able to introduce some other set of, perhaps, stabilization measures or easing criteria or inflation targets,” added Mr. Kosti.
Earlier, the head of the Ministry of Economy, Maxim Reshetnikov, proposed introducing a “membrane based on the Chinese model” between the domestic and foreign ruble markets to stabilize the exchange rate. At the same time, speaking about the membrane, he noted that there is no talk of two courses, since “this is an extremely harmful phenomenon for the economy.”
The Bank of Russia opposed the segmentation of the foreign exchange market and restrictions on capital movements. The Central Bank warned that maintaining such a mechanism would lead to multiple exchange rates and negative consequences for the financial market. The regulator believes that restrictions on capital movements are appropriate only as short-term measures.
There are two yuan exchange rates in China. One is offshore, the other is onshore. The first is established by the market at auctions in Hong Kong and Asian countries. In the second case, the Chinese Central Bank determines the reference rate every day, and the yuan fluctuates within 2% of it.
Read more in the publication “Kommersant” “Exit into open osmosis”.
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