The head of Otkritie expects a larger drop in oil production in Russia than in government forecasts

In 2023, oil production in Russia will decrease from 525 million to 475 million tons, said in an interview RBC Chairman of the Board of Otkritie Bank Mikhail Zadornov. He explained the decrease by the influence of the embargo imposed by European countries on oil from the Russian Federation since December 5. According to Mr. Zadornov, the restrictions will significantly affect the country’s budget and economy.

According to his estimates, it will take three to four years to create infrastructure, for example, for gas exports. At the same time, there are almost no analogues to the European market in terms of margin and volumes in the world. “Where can we put our 10.5–11 million barrels of oil per day, oil products, gas, of which 150–170 billion cubic meters were supplied to Europe. m, taking into account Turkey? – he said.

“It is not even clear where to supply this oil, but who will carry it, insure whether it will be possible to cope with the reorientation of oil flows from Europe and other unfriendly countries to Asian markets. This is a key issue in terms of GDP and balance of payments growth rates next year,” the head of Otkritie explained.

Mikhail Zadornov also urged not to rejoice at high energy prices in Europe. “Essentially, we are losing markets that we have been building since the days of the Soviet Union. It took 50 years to build a market, mutual economic ties that have been destroyed for several decades to come. Today we have lost these markets: the markets for the supply of equipment to us and the export of energy, timber, fertilizers to European countries,” the banker concluded.

The European Union imposed an embargo on the transportation of Russian oil to third countries at a price above $60 per barrel. The G7 countries, as well as Australia and Norway, joined the restrictions. The draft Russian budget for 2023, approved by the government, forecasts a decline in oil production to 490 million tons. International Energy Agency expectsthat by April oil production in Russia could fall by 1.8 million barrels per day.

About the situation on the market – in the publication “Kommersant” “Oil jumped to the ceiling”.

Laura Keffer