The exchange rate of the dollar approached 100 rubles for the first time since mid-August

The exchange rate of the dollar for the first time since mid-August approached 100 rubles/$. The bearish play against the Russian currency is being carried out by market participants against the backdrop of the end of the tax period, which has reduced the supply of export earnings. In the absence of new steps to support the ruble from the financial authorities, the dollar exchange rate, according to analysts, may consolidate above 100 rubles/$.

The dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange on October 2, after a month and a half break, approached the level of 100 rubles/$. For almost most of the trading session, market participants tested the 99 rub./$ mark, either exceeding it or falling back below it. However, in the last hour of trading, the bullish game intensified, and shortly before the closing of the trading session, the rate reached 99.95 rubles/$.

As a result of trading, the rate stopped at 99.77 rubles/$, the maximum closing value since March 25, 2022.

Other key currencies also increased, but less significantly. The euro exchange rate rose to 104.95 rubles/€, the maximum only since September 4. The yuan exchange rate rose to 13.6 rubles/CNY, the highest closing value since August 11.

The return of the rates of leading currencies to local maximums occurred with low investor activity. The volume of trading in dollars with delivery “tomorrow” amounted to 87.5 billion rubles, which is 6.6 billion rubles. lower than the previous day’s result. At the same time, in the last hour of trading, trading volumes fell almost threefold compared to previous periods, to 4.3 billion rubles. Yuan trading volume amounted to less than 87 billion rubles, the minimum since July 19.

The weakening of the ruble accelerated last Friday after the end of the tax period: on September 28, companies completed transfers to the budget of VAT, insurance premiums, personal income tax, mineral extraction tax and excise taxes.

According to analysts at Zenit Bank, the total volume of payments amounted to about 2.85 trillion rubles. “The end of the tax period gives confidence to speculative strategies aimed at weakening the national currency,” notes Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the bank’s analytical department.

Despite high oil prices, analysts do not see fundamental factors supporting the Russian currency in the current conditions. “The current supply of foreign currency from exports is not enough to satisfy the demand for foreign currency for the purchase of imports, for the outflow of capital and from leaving foreign companies,” says Sovcombank chief analyst Mikhail Vasiliev.

The situation is aggravated by restrictions on the export of gasoline and diesel. “In the fourth quarter it could be $12 billion. This figure is almost identical to the entire current account surplus we project for this period,” explains Mr. Vasiliev.

Analysts expect a further depreciation of the ruble. According to Mikhail Vasiliev, in the coming weeks the dollar will trade in the range of 97–101 rubles/$.

If the level of 100 rubles/$ is overcome, as Vladimir Evstifeev expects, the recovery dynamics may resume due to profit-taking by speculators.

At the same time, financial regulators may be required to take new steps to support the national currency. “While the authorities are discussing the feasibility of tightening capital control measures, there is nothing to oppose the weakening of the ruble, while verbal interventions are clearly not enough to reverse the downward trend,” Mr. Evstifeev believes.

The most effective, according to analysts, would be the introduction of a ban on the exit of foreign companies from the Russian market and the return of the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters. However, Mikhail Vasiliev emphasizes, “more fine-tuning is needed in the field of working with exporters on the return of foreign exchange earnings and foreign exchange control, so as not to prevent business from operating under Western sanctions.”

Vitaly Gaidaev