The depreciating ruble raised the wholesale price of AI-95 gasoline to another historical record

Excessive demand for oil products on the stock exchange, as well as the growing attractiveness of exports against the background of the renewed weakening of the ruble, raised the wholesale price of AI-95 gasoline to another historical record. Diesel fuel and gasoline AI-92 are rising in price less confidently: prices are kept near the level, above which oil companies may lose multi-billion dollar damper payments in August. The dynamics of wholesale prices is gradually shifting to retail prices: according to Rosstat, last week gasoline rose in price by 0.6%.

The cost of stock lots of AI-95 gasoline in the European part of Russia on August 23 almost reached 71 thousand rubles. per ton (an increase of 1.3%), which is a new absolute record. Quotes are growing for the second day in a row after a short break at the beginning of the week, when they fell below the level of 70 thousand rubles. per ton. The price of gasoline AI-92 showed a longer-term correction – from August 17 to August 22, but the day before it increased by 1.6%, to 62.7 thousand rubles. per ton. The cost of diesel fuel also went up, although less dynamically than gasoline (by 0.3%, to 66.4 thousand rubles per ton). The cost of diesel fuel is still significantly lower than the peak reached on August 17 at 67.9 thousand rubles. per ton.

The main reason for the resumption of growth in fuel prices is the dynamics ruble exchange rate, which again began to weaken, increasing the economic attractiveness of exports. In addition, domestic demand remains strong during the holiday season and supply is limited due to repairs at several refineries. The government has announced possible mechanisms to combat illegal exports by reducing the number of suppliers, but no final decisions have yet been made.

In addition, the demand for petroleum products, primarily diesel fuel, increased with the harvest and the start of the autumn sowing season.

Against this background, the Ministry of Energy on August 22 already recommended that oil companies restrain small-scale wholesale prices for diesel fuel in agricultural regions.

The ministry acknowledged “some difficulties with the rhythm of deliveries” by rail heading south during the tourist season. However, JSC Russian Railways attributed the problem to the fact that in the south there is a long idle time of tanks waiting to be drained by consignees.

Prices for AI-92 and diesel fuel are now almost at the level at which oil companies may lose damper payments for August.

The formula for the damper—compensations oil companies receive for supplying fuel to the domestic market—contains an indicative price for the domestic market, and if actual wholesale prices deviate from the indicative price by more than 10% for gasoline and 20% for diesel fuel, the damper is reset to zero. According to the calculations of independent expert Mikhail Turukalov, companies risk losing the damper if the average diesel fuel and AI-92 indices for the remaining six trading days of August amount to about 67.7 thousand rubles. per ton and 63.6 thousand rubles. per ton, respectively.

Meanwhile, the August damper due to rising oil prices and the weakening of the ruble may be the largest in the last year and a half, according to Reuters. Thus, the subsidy for gasoline in August may increase by 46% compared to July, up to 39.7 thousand rubles. per ton, for diesel fuel – by 55%, up to 33.4 thousand rubles. per ton.

In July, the total payments for the damper, according to the Ministry of Finance, amounted to 78.6 billion rubles.

Mikhail Turukalov also adds that an attempt by the SPIMEX exchange to introduce a new trading format — an opening auction at some plants in the European part of Russia, as well as the lack of available clarifications and recommendations from the exchange on how to use this tool, announced only on August 21 at the end of the working day. This led to a mass submission of bids for purchases on August 23 with the highest possible prices (“up to the ceiling”), due to which the opening auctions for AI-92 gasoline did not take place and only a few marker auction deals with diesel fuel were concluded, the expert notes. “Attempts by the exchange to interfere in the mechanics of trading only add confidence to market participants that the problem of high prices cannot be solved by increasing sales of gasoline and diesel fuel,” Mikhail Turukalov said.

The growth of wholesale prices in recent weeks has been actively transferred to the price tags at gas stations. According to Rosstat, for the week ending August 21, the average cost of gasoline in Russia increased by 0.6%, and since the beginning of the month – by 1.7%. Since the beginning of the year, gasoline at filling stations has risen in price by 6.6%, which is already almost twice the accumulated inflation (3.6%).

Olga Mordyushenko