The decline in demand for secondary housing has not led to a decline in prices

Despite a decrease in demand for secondary housing by 10–30% due to high mortgage rates in this segment, the average cost of such apartments in Russian cities with a population of 500 thousand people or more increased by more than 14% over the year. More pronounced dynamics of 30% are typical for industrial centers. Apartment owners are not yet ready to reduce prices, which has led to an increase in sales time. However, with further growth in supply, average prices may decrease by 5–7%.

The average cost of apartments on the secondary market in cities with a population of 500 thousand or more in the first quarter of 2024 increased by 14.1% year-on-year and by 3.4% by December, to 131.3 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, calculated in “Cyan.Analyst”. According to calculations by Avito Real Estate, in February the average cost of such housing in Russia as a whole increased by 13.2% over the year, to 106.1 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. Executive Director of NDV Supermarket Real Estate Tatyana Podkidysheva says that in Moscow the average cost of resale in the first quarter increased by 4.5%, to 583 thousand rubles.

In Inkom-Real Estate, assessing the dynamics only in the mass segment, they say that secondary housing in the old borders of Moscow rose in price by 2.3% over the year, to 282 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, in the Moscow region – by 3%, to 142.6 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In Chelyabinsk, “resale”, according to Cian.Analytics, increased in price by 38% over the year, to 102.3 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, in Naberezhnye Chelny – by 33%, to 108.2 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, in Makhachkala – by 30%, up to 114 thousand rubles. Cian.Analytics expert Elena Lapshina says that industrial cities are characterized by a more noticeable increase in household incomes, which allows housing prices to rise.

At the same time, Cyan.Analyst notes that demand is declining. The reason is protective mortgage rates, reaching 17–20% on the secondary market, the company reports. According to the Nash.Dom.RF information system, as of March 15, the weighted average offer rate in the 20 largest banks was 16.95%; a year ago this figure was 10.1%.

Mrs. Podkidysheva notes that few are willing to afford such a mortgage: the share of buyers-borrowers on the secondary market in her company has decreased over the year from 80% to 20%. Limited demand leads to an increase in the volume of apartments for sale. In large cities of Russia since the beginning of the year it has grown by 9.95%, to 260.8 thousand objects, they say in Cian.Analyst.

In Moscow, according to Tatyana Podkidysheva, the volume of secondary supply in the first quarter increased by 23%. This is partly due to the doubling of the sales period: now the sale of a one-room apartment in Moscow takes on average one and a half to two months, a two-room apartment – two to three. “In 2023, there were nine buyers per apartment, now there are nine apartments per buyer,” notes Ms. Podkidysheva.

Chief analyst of the Miel company Ekaterina Berezhnova says that in January there were 15% fewer requests than a year earlier, in February – by 25%, in March – by 20%. Sergei Shloma, director of the secondary market department at Inkom-Real Estate, adds that on average there are 10% fewer transactions than a year earlier.

However, according to the director of the secondary real estate department at Est-a-Tet, Yulia Dymova, not all owners are ready to put properties up for sale: due to poor market conditions, many owners of liquid properties have so far decided to rent them out. At the same time, the expert believes that a “local overstock” is already forming on the market, consisting of objects that are not in demand due to their characteristics or are overpriced. But the overall growth of secondary exposure is also facilitated by the unsold supply in new buildings. Sales of apartments from developers in the first quarter of 2024, according to Tatyana Podkidysheva, decreased by 30% year on year.

Elena Lapshina suggests that in the near future average prices will inevitably begin to decline; the fall could be in the range of 5–7%. Mr. Shloma believes that such a trend has already emerged; for some objects a small reduction was recorded – by 2%.

Alexandra Mertsalova