The car market is calculating plans – Kommersant FM
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Chinese automakers intend to occupy 80% of the Russian market in 2024. The largest companies are going to sell a total of 1.2 million new cars, a survey conducted by the Automarketer project showed. The Chery brand wants to increase sales the most, followed by Changan and Haval. Meanwhile, by the end of 2023, Russians will buy a little more than 500 thousand Chinese cars. And the total sales volume, according to preliminary estimates, will only slightly exceed 1 million units. How realistic are the plans of Chinese automakers?
The head of the Automarketer project, Oleg Moseev, believes that it is necessary to reduce ambitions: “This is an absolutely unrealistic figure, because we also need to take into account domestic manufacturers – AvtoVAZ claims 500 thousand cars. Plus, parallel imports take over some of it, resulting in 1.8 million cars per year. That’s why I don’t believe in such numbers.
At the same time, about 1 million will be sold in 2023. Obviously, the market cannot grow like that. Today, a more or less realistic figure for Chinese brands is 700-750 thousand. And this year they will sell approximately 530 thousand cars. And all automakers present on the market will sell. Maybe we will see the departure of some niche brand that was never able to take its rightful place among its competitors. But the main struggle will unfold between Chery, Geely, Haval, Changan. These four will fight for the main volumes.”
At the end of November, almost all Chinese automakers announced discounts on their products. In most cases, they range from 100 thousand rubles. up to 200 thousand rubles. At the same time, car dealers interviewed by Kommersant FM noted that discounts will remain only until the end of the year. And without significant discounts, it will be impossible to sharply increase sales, says Sergei Klimov, co-founder of the Dolavto auto center:
“It’s unlikely that anyone will seriously discount. Chinese manufacturers always announce grandiose plans based on some of their interests. Why do they do this? This always surprised me. Boast or strategic goal? But this happens with them. The only question is the price, because there is purchasing power, and you can’t do anything with it. People will not become richer overnight, and sales can be influenced either by some programs or by price.
As for the discount, this is not so much a winter offer as a marketing one. For example, the FAW and Jetta brands do not offer any discounts. On the contrary, prices rose supposedly so that good credit programs could be created later. Banks began to take more money, and in order to take part of the burden themselves, manufacturers are raising the retail price, making more attractive offers due to this. As for other brands, I also hear, but I don’t see any real discounts yet.”
According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Russian car market will begin to recover in 2024. The department expects that 1.3 million cars will be sold in 2024. And the market will reach the pre-crisis level of 1.5 million cars in 2026. However, even these are still quite optimistic forecasts, says Maxim Davidenko, head of the department for development of products and services of the Alfa-Leasing group of companies:
“I would consider the pre-crisis level to be exactly 1.5 million units. The crisis began with a pandemic. In 2021, when the first serious waves of coronavirus subsided, the market reached a level of 1.5 million cars sold per year. This level will most likely be reached by 2027, unless there are some serious shocks. Now some kind of corridor can be traced based on the ruble exchange rate, and logistics have been set up, plus parallel imports. But this may force automakers to increase the pace of localization. Many brands that are assembled in Russia are large-unit.”
Against this background, at the end of the year, analysts began to record a drop in sales of new cars. So in November, Russians bought approximately 109 thousand new cars, while in October the figure exceeded 112 thousand cars. Experts call this a consequence of high lending rates and increased recycling fees.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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