That gift is not expensive – Newspaper Kommersant No. 230 (7431) dated 12/10/2022
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The propensity of Russian consumers to save money may persist during the high pre-New Year season. Analysts expect a sharp decline in purchases of non-food products after the November sales and a decrease in the average check in terms of costly categories. And some restaurateurs fear a decline in income from corporate events.
Russian consumers will continue to save even during the current New Year’s Eve season, according to analysts’ forecasts. Kokoc Group, which specializes in Internet marketing, expects a 20% reduction in the average check in online hypermarkets, and 16-17% year-on-year in household goods purchases. In other costly categories – electronics and jewelry – the average check may remain at last year’s levels of 20 thousand rubles. and about 18 thousand rubles. respectively due to rising prices, they predict there.
According to Infoline estimates, sales of non-food products in December year-on-year may decrease by 12.5% in physical terms and by 2.7% in money terms. According to Mikhail Burmistrov, General Director of Infoline-Analytics, consumers are switching to cheaper goods and their demand was partially satisfied by the November sales. Kokoc Group calculated that during these promotions, the average check on online platforms decreased by more than 50%, to 4.99 thousand rubles. year by year.
According to NielsenIQ, in the third quarter of 2022, about 70% of consumers in the Russian Federation tried to cut costs. The main items of savings are new clothes, entertainment and eating out, replacement of household items, vacations and electronics purchases. According to an Ipsos survey, 25% of Russians intend to buy fewer gifts this year than last year. And the share of those who plan to spend more than 5 thousand rubles on a gift decreased from 16% to 14% due to a shift to the cost segment in the range of 3–5 thousand rubles.
Wildberries confirms that consumers are being frugal, but are seeing an increase in sales of high-value items such as home appliances, electronics and jewelry. Although the main demand in most categories is noted in the mass segment, which may be due to the narrowing of the range of expensive brands due to the departure of some foreign brands, the company adds. VseInstrumenty.ru also talks about a trend to buy cheaper goods, including due to the redistribution of demand for less expensive Chinese imports. Although when an expensive European brand appears on the shelves, it is immediately sold out, they note there.
M.Video-Eldorado adds that the average check in stores is higher than online, and according to the results of the November sales, it showed a slight increase year-on-year.
“People have become more selective, preferring to pre-test large purchases and consult with experts,” the company says. The 585*Zolotoy chain is not expecting a reduction in customer spending, but they note that visits to jewelry stores have become targeted. Their number is declining, but conversion is growing – people come to the store, as a rule, already knowing what they want to buy, the company says.
The desire of Russians to save money in the pre-New Year period is also noted by some restaurateurs. Thus, Elena Nosova, brand director of the Perchini chain, notes a new trend for small corporate events for 3–5 people versus 12–20 guests in the past. She connects this with the general trend towards reasonable consumption. Artem Lomize, managing partner of the Moremania network, says that in December the activity of guests is growing, but, as the period since autumn shows, traffic has been declining from 15% to 25% year on year, so the forecast is not the best so far.
Henrik Winter, co-owner of the Tigrus holding (manages Osteria Mario, Shvili and Bar BQ Cafe), expects revenues to decline by 7-10% yoy in December, mainly due to the negative performance of establishments in large shopping centers. The Shokoladnitsa Group believes that traffic remains at last year’s level. And the El Asador restaurant fears that December will become a record low in terms of traffic, and the number of events will be much lower than in 2019, including due to the low activity of government agencies.
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