State Transport Leasing Company expects air traffic to grow to 114 million people in 2024

State Transport Leasing Company expects air traffic to grow by 8% in 2024, to 114 million people. This is 11% higher than the forecasts included in the aviation industry development strategy. But the Ministry of Transport initially assumed a greater increase in domestic traffic, while in practice the main factor in the increase in passenger traffic was flights abroad. State Transport Leasing Company expects that this year the dynamics of trips abroad will slow down, and growth on domestic flights will accelerate. But experts believe international passenger traffic will continue to grow faster as airlines have more capacity following insurance settlements on Western planes.

IN review transport industry from the State Transport Leasing Company (STLC) provides a forecast for the growth of air transportation in the Russian Federation in 2024 by 8%, to 114 million people. As the State Transport Leasing Company clarified to Kommersant, they expect that domestic transportation will increase to 90 million passengers (by 8.8% year-on-year), and international traffic by 7.6%, to 24 million.

In 2023, passenger traffic increased by 11%, to 105.4 million people. Including transportation abroad increased by 27%, to 22.3 million people, which is approaching the levels of “post-pandemic” 2021 (23.5 million people). This is explained by the “debermudization” of almost half of the foreign aircraft fleet (see. “Kommersant” from March 11) and increasing the list of countries available for flights to 37 (seven of them were opened in 2023). In pre-crisis 2019, direct flights with almost 70 countries allowed airlines to transport 55.1 million people abroad. The dynamics of domestic air traffic grew much more slowly – by 6%, to 82.7 million people. This is 13% higher than 2019 levels (73.1 million people).

State Transport Leasing Company’s forecast for 2024 is 11.5% higher than the baseline scenario for the comprehensive aviation industry development program.

When compiling it in 2022, the Ministry of Transport proceeded from the fact that transportation abroad in 2023–2028 would account for about 10% of the total passenger traffic, that is, 10.1–10.9 million people, and they would exceed the 11 million level only based on the results 2029. At the same time, the Ministry of Transport expected that the volume of domestic traffic in 2023 would exceed 91 million people and will grow by about 1 million people in the next two years. The Ministry assumed a reduction in the fleet of foreign aircraft from almost 700 in the spring of 2022 to 615 by the end of 2025, which was to be compensated by the supply of domestic aircraft from 2023 (for a postponement of two years, see “Kommersant” from March 1).

A number of Kommersant’s interlocutors believe that the growth of international traffic, which in 2022–2023 was fueled by pent-up demand and comparative affordability in certain directions, has reached its limit (see. “Kommersant” from March 6).

Vice-President of the Russian Union of Travel Industry Dmitry Gorin, on the contrary, believes that now there are more opportunities for moderate growth on international routes, “but there will be no explosive dynamics.” Of the countries currently available, only half can be called exclusively touristic. “It is too early to expect the opening of fundamentally new destinations,” the expert concludes, and the new routes will not cause “massive rush demand.”

However, according to his forecast, in 2024, international transport could add up to 10% by 2023, while the dynamics of domestic transport will remain at the same level. In his opinion, the development of international flights, which are traditionally more profitable than domestic flights, will be facilitated by the continued purchase of foreign aircraft. This will allow carriers to offer more capacity on international flights from the regions.

The destinations that attract the maximum number of tourists, he believes, will remain the same: Turkey, Thailand, the UAE and other countries of the Middle East.

In 2023, out of 8 million organized tourists from the Russian Federation, 5 million travelers came to Turkey (6.3 million including transit). In 2024, this number may increase due to transit passengers, Mr. Gorin believes, as well as due to the stabilization of price offers in recent months. In 2019, he notes, the organized tourist flow from the Russian Federation to all countries exceeded 14 million people. If direct flights are organized, Indonesia may gain popularity, the expert says, and with an increase in the number of charter flights, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Tunisia have growth prospects.

In general, in 2023, the share of air tickets purchased abroad by business travelers increased from 14% in 2022 to 18%, estimates the managing director of the Aeroclub business tourism agency, Yulia Lipatova. “Given the economic situation, we expect a further increase in the share of business travelers on foreign routes – in 2024 it could reach 20%,” she says. On domestic flights, Yulia Lipatova believes, the share of business tourists can increase to an average of 35% and up to 40% in large cities.

Aigul Abdullina