SPIMEX exchange sold a record daily volume of oil products

The volume of trading in petroleum products on the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange (SPIMEX) on January 25, 2023 amounted to 167,732 tons, which was a record level, the exchange reported. The previous high in sales was recorded on March 4, 2011.

The release notes that on January 25, motor gasoline (Ai-92 and AI-95) accounted for 32% of the daily trading volume, or 52,940 tons. Diesel fuel was sold 79,034 tons, or 47% of the trading volume, jet fuel 13,256 tons (8%), fuel oil – 5655 tons (3%), and liquefied hydrocarbon gases (LHG) – 9631 tons (6%).

The record growth in trading volumes occurred against the backdrop of falling exchange prices for petroleum products in the first two working weeks of 2023, with winter diesel fuel depreciating the most. From January 9 to 23, the cost of AI-92 decreased by 9.6% to 32,783 rubles/t, AI-95 – by 9.3% to 38,176 rubles/t, summer diesel – by 18% to 38,673 rubles ./t, off-season diesel – by 16.4% to 39,780 rubles/t, and winter diesel fuel – by 26.1% to 46,490 rubles/t.

But this week, some oil products are becoming more expensive on the exchange: for example, on Thursday, January 26, the price of AI-92 increased by 5.1% compared to Monday, January 23, and amounted to 34,445 rubles per ton. Winter diesel fuel has not yet won back the fall – on January 26, its price was 1.2% lower than on January 23, and amounted to 45,915 rubles per ton.

Sales of petroleum products were also record-breaking for SPIMEX following the results of the whole of 2022: trading volume increased by 7.8% by 2021 to 29.1 million tons (Vedomosti wrote about this on January 13, 2022). More than a quarter of oil products supplied to the domestic market are traded on the stock exchange. In 2022, sales of diesel increased by 18.9% to 13.7 mmt, and heating oil by 19.9% ​​to 1.7 mmt. gasoline – by a symbolic 1% to 6.25 million tons.

Vedomosti sent questions about the reasons for the growth in trading volumes at SPIMEX.

The growth of exchange trading was registered against the backdrop of increased anti-Russian sanctions in 2022 after the start of the NWO in Ukraine. In March, the United States and Great Britain refused Russian oil and oil products. Then the European Union (EU) imposed an embargo on their maritime supplies from Russia: from December 5, 2022, oil supplies were banned, and on February 5, 2023, an embargo on oil products will come into force.

At the same time, price ceilings for Russian fuel come into force: the price of oil from the Russian Federation was capped at $60/bbl, and the level of marginal prices at which unfriendly states are ready to buy oil products is still being discussed. The countries that have joined the sanctions are planning to set two price limits – for more expensive oil products (for example, diesel) and for cheaper ones (for example, fuel oil). According to analysts, the marginal cost of the former may be about $650/t, and the latter $360/t (Vedomosti wrote about this on January 18).

After the strengthening of sanctions, Russian oil companies had to urgently redirect supplies of oil and oil products from Europe to Asia. The largest buyers of oil from the Russian Federation are China and India. At the same time, raw materials from Russia are in greater demand among new buyers than oil products, since China and India are provided with their own refining capacities.

Countries are buying Russian Urals at a discount to Brent: at the maximum in the spring of 2022, it reached $35/bbl, and in the winter of 2022-2023. hovered around $30/bbl. March Brent futures traded at $86.7/bbl on January 26, according to the ICE exchange.

According to Finam analyst Sergei Kaufman, against the background of the entry into force on February 5 of the embargo on the supply of petroleum products from Russia to the EU and problems with the redirection of fuel to Asia, oil refiners increased supplies to the domestic market.

As a result, wholesale prices fell, Kuafman said, allowing consumers to stockpile petroleum products at abnormally low prices on the exchange. The analyst noted that this situation allows independent gas stations to increase margins.

At the same time, oil refining in Russia, according to a source familiar with the statistics of the Ministry of Energy, in the first half of January 2023 averaged about 800,000 tons per day, which is more than 10% higher than the average daily refining in December 2022.

Stock market expertBCS The World of Investments” Yevgeny Mironyuk adds that foreign buyers, on the eve of the embargo and the price ceiling for oil products, do not want to buy oil products from the Russian Federation at high prices. Russian oilmen, in his opinion, will again have to solve this problem by providing discounts. At the same time, for manufacturers, the expert notes, it is important to sell stocks before the start of restrictions.”

Kaufman believes that in the coming days the volume of trading in oil products on the St. Petersburg International Exchange may set a new record. According to the stock exchange, on January 26, 155,059 tons of oil products were sold. At the same time, in the medium term, the volume of oil refining in Russia may decrease: the ratio of supply and demand in the domestic market will normalize, which will lead to a partial recovery in wholesale prices, adds Kaufman.