speculators raised the rates of the world’s leading currencies

The ruble ends the quarter and half of the year at the lowest levels since March 2022. As a result of trading on Thursday, the dollar was fixed above 87.5 rubles / $, the yuan – above 12 rubles / CNY. High demand in these currencies against the backdrop of the end of the tax period could be associated with the outflow of capital and the active game of speculators. Analysts allow the dollar to rise to 90 rubles/$.

Trading on the Moscow Exchange on June 29 began with another sharp weakening of the ruble. Already at the beginning of the main session, the dollar exchange rate exceeded the level of 87 rubles/$, having updated the maximum set in the morning session on Monday. Trading closed at 87.57 rubles / $ – the maximum value since March 29, 2022 and 1.2 rubles. higher than the previous day’s close.

Multi-month highs have also been updated by other currencies. The euro exchange rate rose by 80 kopecks during the day, to the mark of 95.1 rubles/€. The yuan exchange rate closed above RUB 12/CNY for the first time since April 2022, which is 16 kopecks more than Wednesday’s close.

The strengthening of the positions of leading currencies against the ruble was accompanied by a sharp increase in investor activity.

The volume of trading in dollars with delivery “tomorrow” exceeded 111 billion rubles, which is the third result this month. The trading volume of the yuan rose by a third and exceeded 142 billion rubles, the second result this month.

For both currencies, the peak of demand fell on the first hour of the main trading, during which 27.7 billion rubles passed in the dollar. and in yuan – 28.7 billion rubles. A Kommersant source in a bank from the top ten believes that margin calls could work for individual market participants. “The American currency has been growing almost without correction since the May holidays — from 76 rubles/$ to 87 rubles/$. It is possible to sit out such growth with leverage only with a large supply of liquidity, and this is rare for speculators,” he notes.

In addition, the tax period ended on June 28, and the Russian market was left without internal support in the form of the sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters. Their absence began to put pressure on the ruble on Wednesday, following which the US currency rose by 1.3 rubles.

The influence of this factor has generally decreased in recent months against the backdrop of low oil prices. According to Investing.com, North Sea Brent oil has been trading near $75 per barrel for the second month. “The situation is aggravated by the fact that imports have recovered to the levels of 2020-2021, and the state budget has a large deficit,” said Dmitry Babin, an expert on the stock market at BCS Mir Investments.

The currency has again been seen as insurance against geopolitical and domestic political risks after the events over the weekend, analysts say. In addition to this, interest in the currency remains on the part of foreign companies that sell their business in Russia.

Mikhail Vasilyev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, draws attention to the decision of the retailer Magnit to increase the buyback limit for its shares from non-resident investors to 29.8% (previously it was planned to buy back only 10%). “In the conditions of reduced liquidity of the Russian foreign exchange market, the ruble has become more sensitive to surges in demand for foreign currency,” notes Mr. Vasiliev.

At the same time, there are no significant changes in key fundamental parameters that could break the trend towards the weakening of the ruble, Dmitry Babin notes. According to Mikhail Vasiliev, in the coming days, speculators can test the levels of 88-90 rubles / $.

A stronger strengthening may be restrained by verbal interventions, since in this case it will go out of the range designated by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov as comfortable for the economy. The rapid weakening of the ruble is unprofitable for the Bank of Russia and the government, explains Mr. Vasiliev, as it raises devaluation and inflationary expectations.

Vitaly Gaidaev