Speculators drove up stock prices of last year’s IPO outsiders

Last year’s outsiders of initial offerings showed a confident increase in stock prices. Moreover, the cost of Eurotrans and Mosgorlombard securities exceeded the IPO price. Experts consider the game speculative and draw analogies with last year’s surge in trading in third-tier shares. But in general, market participants are committed to growth in the Russian stock market, which can also be supported by low-liquidity stocks.

At the Moscow Exchange trading on January 10, the outsiders of last year’s initial offerings – Mosgorlombard (MGKL), Eurotrans, Henderson and Smarttechgroup – showed strong growth in shares. In particular, Eurotrans quotes at the beginning of the main exchange session exceeded 485 rubles, which is almost twice the IPO price. Mosgorlombard shares exceeded 3 rubles, 20% more than the initial offering price (see “Kommersant Online” dated December 28, 2023). And although they subsequently rolled back from their highs, the quotes consolidated above the placement price (by 58% and 3%, respectively). At the same time, the volumes exceeded the results of the first trading after the IPO, reaching 2.9 billion rubles. for Eurotrans and 0.94 billion rubles. according to MGKL.

Shares of Henderson and Smarttechgroup were less fortunate – they only managed to close the gap from the IPO price, and volumes were significantly lower.

More successful issuers (Astra Group, Yuzhuralzoloto, Sovcombank), which entered the stock market last year, whose shares were immediately traded above the IPO price, did not show a significant increase in either quotes or trading volumes.

Experts interviewed by Kommersant consider the demonstrated growth in quotations and volumes of a number of issuers to be speculative. Not all companies were placed successfully; the dynamics of some of them were quite volatile, noted Capital Lab partner Evgeniy Shatov. According to the managing director of Ivolga Capital, Dmitry Alexandrov, what is happening is reminiscent of what happened last year with third-tier shares, when securities quotes periodically grew actively on large trading volumes (see “Kommersant” dated February 17, 2023). Here, according to Mr. Alexandrov, the situation is similar: “The securities have not yet been sold, they are not as liquid as other chips.”

The Moscow Exchange, however, did not publish announcements about holding discrete auctions. It was explained at the site that additional response measures are aimed at third-tier shares, and many securities for which there were IPOs are included in the highest quotation lists. The Bank of Russia said that all cases of excessive volatility in the absence of information reasons are analyzed for possible manipulation. But the regulator did not specify whether it conducted such an analysis based on the results of trading on January 10.

So far, market participants are not ready to predict how long the growth in quotations may continue. Last time, the “bubble” in the third tier lasted for a couple of months, after which quotes fell by about 40% from their highs, notes Mr. Alexandrov. Mr. Shatov believes that the listed shares will move in the direction of the Moscow Exchange index if there is no negative news about them.

Since the beginning of the year, the MOEX index has been showing moderately upward dynamics. Over six working days, it added more than 25 points, reaching 3164.7 points and returning to the values ​​of early December.

Digital Broker analyst Natalia Pyryeva believes that this is due to the closure of registers for receiving interim dividends of a number of issuers (Tatneft, Rosneft, Magnit). Natalya Malykh, head of the stock analysis department at Finam Financial Group, believes that the market is growing due to the support of stable oil prices: “Investors apparently consider the current strengthening of the Russian currency to be a temporary phenomenon and expect a weaker exchange rate throughout the year, preferring to remain in stocks.” According to Ms. Pyryeva, by the end of 2024 the Moscow Exchange index could rise by 20%, while in 2023 the growth exceeded 40%. Natalya Malykh expects growth to 3,600 points (more than 16%) due to dividends, their reinvestment, an increase in the money supply and the weakening of the ruble.

Ksenia Kulikova