Space will be cleared for gas turbines

As Kommersant found out, the State Energy Council recommended the government to build annually 2 GW of thermal power plants on Russian gas turbines from 2028. It is also proposed to continue the selection of TPP modernization projects after 2031 in order to secure an order for turbine manufacturers. The cost of 2 GW of such stations, according to analysts, could amount to 200 billion rubles. However, experts doubt the feasibility of these plans due to the poor readiness of the machines.

Half of the volume of the program for the modernization of old thermal power plants can be given for the construction of power units on Russian gas turbines. The State Energy Council recommended that the government work out such an issue, follows from the minutes of the meeting (“Kommersant” saw the document dated March 1). The size of the special quota for combined cycle plants (CCGT) may be 2 GW per year. The new rules are proposed to be introduced at the next competition, where projects with a launch in 2028 will be raffled off. At the same time, the State Council also recommended that the government work out the issue of extending the program for the modernization of old thermal power plants after 2031.

Judging by the protocol, the main purpose of the proposals is to create a guaranteed order for the turbines “ODK-Saturn” of “Rostec” (machine GTD-110M) and “Power Machines” (machines GTE-65, GTE-170). To maintain production, UEC needs to produce three to four cars a year, and Silmash needs six to ten. The power units on these machines will pay off at the expense of the industry, which will pay for their energy at a higher price.

The extension of the modernization program beyond 2031, according to the “Council of Energy Producers” (CPE, unites the generating companies of the Russian Federation), will create a “systemic long-term order” for turbines, will allow “to form a fair price for products and ensure end-to-end serialization for suppliers of all levels.”

So far, only six units on Russian turbines have been selected in the modernization program with a total capacity of 1.8 GW and a total CAPEX of 118 billion rubles to be launched in 2025–2028. Judging by past tenders, the total CAPEX of CCGT projects for 2 GW in subsequent selections may be 177–200 billion rubles, Oleg Dudikhin from Kept calculated. The volume of wholesale energy market payments for their energy can range from 37 billion to 41 billion rubles. a year, he notes.

Representatives of the Ministry of Energy at the meeting noted that so far there are actually no ready-made gas turbine units that meet the localization requirements. The ministry proposed to ensure control over the creation of machines in order to prevent the disruption of the launch of power units. The SPE told Kommersant that at the site of the Ministry of Energy “consultations continue on the specifics of CCGT participation in the selection.”

Rostec approves the initiative and considers it possible to give the entire modernization program (4 GW per year) to CCGT projects, recalling its successfully tested GTD-110M machine (delivered to the Udarnaya TPP under construction in Taman). “It is now impossible to buy turbines from Western suppliers. And that is great. Even if they suddenly wanted to return, they should have been banned once and for all, since they showed themselves as unfriendly as possible, ”the state corporation told Kommersant.

Silmash is in favor of continuing the selection of CCGT units with a separate quota of 2 GW per year from October 2023 and for increasing the quota to 4 GW from 2025, the company’s CEO Alexander Konyukhov told Kommersant. According to his estimates, this long-term industry order will ensure the production of at least seven to eight turbines per year, develop technologies at a hundred supplier plants and “finally secure the country’s technological sovereignty” in the production of gas turbines.

The Community of Energy Consumers believes that the energy system does not have as much capacity as it is proposed to modernize: “The quota for projects with CCGT should be made noticeably less than the total capacity that power machine builders can produce, otherwise the price of projects will be overestimated due to lack of competition.”

CCGT units with a capacity of 2 GW will require 10-25 gas turbines, depending on the capacity, says independent analyst Yuri Melnikov. Under these conditions, the launch of such a volume of stations in 2028 is an unrealistic task, he believes. Yuri Melnikov finds it difficult to guess in what specific year the power engineers will be able to launch 2 GW CCGT units on Russian machines. “Everything depends on the real capabilities of machine builders, but so far there is no information in the public space about any of the suppliers entering a commercial model,” he says.

Polina Smertina, Tatyana Dyatel