Sovcombank shares rose by 8.7% in secondary trading

According to the results of the first day of secondary exchange trading, Sovcombank shares rose in price by only 8.7% relative to the price at which their initial placement was carried out. The price increase was determined by high oversubscription for these securities, as well as a moderate increase in the key rate of the Central Bank, which was announced on the same day. However, according to some analysts, the dynamics of quotes may indicate that many investors in the shares of this generally high-quality issuer are speculative.

The first secondary trading in Sovcombank shares on the Moscow Exchange on December 15 began late. Initially it was planned that they would begin at 16:00, but later the exchange announced that the start of trading in the bank’s shares would be postponed to 17:00. The question about the reason for the postponement of trading at Sovcombank was forwarded to the Moscow Exchange, which did not respond to Kommersant’s request.

The shift in the start of trading was not the only problem. Previously, Sergei Khotimsky (in an interview with the agency “Prime” December 11) estimated that “the bank will have about 100 thousand new shareholders” (at that time the order book was oversubscribed five times). A Kommersant source said that as a result, the oversubscription could become 11-fold. In the final press release the bank reported that more than 140 thousand applications were submitted, without disclosing the number of satisfied applications. Judging by the data of the Moscow Exchange, there were significantly fewer of them – the number of transactions during the placement slightly exceeded 75 thousand. The bank does not comment on this data. It is possible that a significant proportion of small applications were not satisfied. Like, for example, the application of a Kommersant correspondent submitted on the day the IPO was announced. In the support chat they only said that participation in the placement does not guarantee 100% satisfaction of applications.

As a result, although the IPO in terms of the number of executed applications became one of the largest in the Russian Federation, this year it lost to the IPO of the Astra group (118 thousand transactions) and only slightly exceeded the result of the IPO of Yuzhuralzoloto (70.5 thousand).

Nevertheless, a large volume of oversubscription affected the quotes of Sovcombank shares – at the opening of trading they soared by almost 27%, to 14.6 rubles. (although they lost in dynamics to the shares of the Astra group, see “Kommersant” dated October 17). And by the close of the trading session, the bank’s share price fell back to 12.5 rubles, only 8.7% higher than the offering price. The trading volume amounted to 3 billion rubles.

The growth of Sovcombank shares was facilitated, firstly, by pent-up demand after a significant oversubscription, and secondly, by a moderate increase in the key rate of the Central Bank on the same day (to 16%) and the regulator’s signal about the imminent end of the cycle of tightening monetary policy, says the investment strategist of Arikapital Management Company » Sergey Suverov. At the same time, Sovcombank adequately assessed itself in terms of the multiplier and did not increase the volume of placement, which should ensure stability of trading, Managing Director of Ivolga Capital Dmitry Alexandrov is sure.

The strengths of Sovcombank as an issuer include a high volume of investments in shares, which allows the bank to demonstrate high return on capital, at the level of 51% (for Sberbank – 27.6%), notes Tsifra Broker analyst Natalia Pyryeva.

In addition, Sovcombank shows faster average annual growth rates (CAGR) of loans issued (33%) and deposits attracted (32%) compared to 16% and 14%, respectively, for Sberbank.

Thanks to this, according to Ms. Pyryeva, Sovcombank’s income grows annually by 17% (at Sberbank – by 12%). According to expert estimates, Sovcombank’s dividends for 2023 could amount to 1.48 rubles. per share, which provides a yield of about 12% at current prices.

However, according to Natalia Pyryeva, the rather modest dynamics of quotes on the first day of trading “somewhat disappointed the market, since there was a lot of noise around the placement.” Dmitry Alexandrov, head of the analytical research department at IVA Partners, notes that investors, apparently, use only a speculative opportunity and are not ready to invest for a long time, therefore they do not obtain volumes on the secondary market. He notes the growing risks of increased regulatory and tax pressure on the industry. Ms. Pyryeva also points to the rather low level of capital adequacy of Sovcombank among systemically important Russian banks (11.6%).

Ksenia Kulikova, Olga Sherunkova