Secondary housing does not attract buyers – Business – Kommersant

Growth in supply and low activity of buyers are holding back prices in the secondary real estate market: the average cost of housing is stagnating, and most transactions are still concluded at a discount. With an average discount of 5.6% for an urgent sale, it can reach 20%. Market participants do not yet see prerequisites for an increase in demand and prices for secondary housing. The behavior of buyers determines the relatively high cost of lending, they point out.

How prices for resale property have changed in early 2023

The average cost of secondary real estate in 18 large regional markets of Russia (16 million-plus cities, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in January amounted to 124.1 thousand rubles. per sq. m. having increased by 0.9% over the month. Such data are provided by CIAN.Analytics experts, indicating that the growth is partly explained by the traditionally active end of the year.

In the company “Etazhi”, the average cost of “secondary” in the country as a whole is estimated at 92.93 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Relative to December, the value decreased by 0.25%, January last year – increased by 8.64%.

The cost of an average lot in the secondary market in Avito Nedvizhimost is estimated at 4.2 million rubles. Over the month, this figure increased by 1.8%, and over the year – by 16.6%.

The most pronounced increase in the average cost of secondary real estate for the month was noticed by experts from CIAN.Analytics in Krasnodar. The offer price in the city increased by 3.2% to 117.1 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In Samara, a similar dynamics – 2.8%, up to 104.5 thousand rubles.

At the same time, in the largest markets of the Moscow region and the Leningrad region, analysts note a decrease of 1.5% (up to 156 thousand rubles per sq. m. and 1.6% (up to 133.7 thousand rubles per sq. m., respectively). Floors indicate a noticeable decrease in the average cost of apartments in Novy Urengoy, which decreased by 2.5% over the month to 155.1 thousand rubles per sq. m.

In Moscow, the average cost of secondary real estate, according to CIAN.Analytics, is now 303.7 thousand rubles. per sq. m. For the month, the figure increased by only 0.1%.

What discounts are possible in the secondary market

Almost all sales occur at a discount due to low demand and a wide range of offers, says Sergey Shloma, director of the secondary market direction of Inkom-real estate. “The price bubble that has inflated in 2020-2021 in the market continues to deflate,” he notes.

Apple Real Estate CEO Danila Savchenko estimates the average size of discounts in Moscow at 5-10%. Sometimes discounts reach up to 20%. The situation on the secondary market, in his opinion, is now determined by the distribution of existing demand for the growing volume of exposition: many owners who previously rented apartments have now put them up for sale.

According to calculations by Avito Nedvizhimost, the total volume of exposure in the secondary markets of the country’s largest cities is now 27.3% higher than in the same period last year. Over the month, the value increased by 15%.

At the same time, the activity of users, according to the head of the secondary and out-of-town areas of Avito Nedvizhimost Sergey Khakhulin, is 15.8% lower than in January last year. Demand lags behind the value of December by 41.7%, but this is largely due to the seasonality traditional for the market. CIAN.Analytics expert Victoria Kiryukhina calls the January demand more substantive: buyers are not just monitoring the market, but are ready to more specifically discuss possible deals.

The director of Etazhi, Ildar Khusainov, estimates the average discount in the largest cities of the country as a whole at 5.4%, although he also notes that there are objects on the market for urgent sale with discounts of 20-25%. But, as a rule, we are talking about lots of a large area, he notes.

Victoria Kiryukhina points out that urgent sale offers now form 3.8% of ads. In December, this figure was slightly higher – 4%. There are no more such sellers on the market, she notes.

Expert forecasts: what awaits the secondary in the near future

Sergei Shloma considers the growth in demand for secondary housing unlikely: “those who need to solve the housing problem remained on the market, there will be no more of them, mortgage lending conditions in the secondary market today do not contribute to the growth in the number of borrowers.” Based on this, the expert predicts a price decline.

Danila Savchenko does not rule out that the average prices for secondary housing in Moscow this year will drop by 10%. Although Ildar Khusainov points out that the situation will largely be determined by the policy of the Central Bank in relation to the key rate: any increase in it will help reduce demand and increase the discount in the secondary market.

Ms. Kiryukhina assumes that the demand for secondary real estate will remain at the current level.

Alexandra Mertsalova