Second home prices in Russia: forecast for 2023

Prices for secondary real estate in the largest regional markets of the country continue to demonstrate restrained growth, having increased by an average of 1% over the month. This is dictated by the stable demand of buyers who refuse to purchase new buildings in favor of finished housing. Their activity helps to wash out the most liquid offers from the market and reduce the amount of discounts. But in the coming months, the market may experience a seasonal decline in activity, which will lead to an increase in discounts.

The average cost of secondary real estate in 18 largest regional markets of Russia (16 million-plus cities, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in May amounted to 125.9 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, an increase of 1% compared to April. Such data are provided by experts from Cyan.Analytics, pointing to an acceleration in the growth rate. So, in April, relative to March, the cost of “secondary” increased by 0.7%, in March to February – by 0.5%. But the annual dynamics remains insignificant – 4%. According to the calculations of “Etazhy”, in Russia as a whole, secondary real estate now costs an average of 111.9 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. This is 0.5% higher than in April and 3.7% higher than in May last year. In “Avito Real Estate” the average cost of the “secondary” in Russia is estimated at 89.6 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, the budget of the lot is 4.3 million rubles. Over the month, both indicators increased by 0.2%, over the year the dynamics amounted to 11.1% and 8.9%, respectively.

The most pronounced growth the average cost of the proposal for the month, according to the calculations of Cyan.Analytics, there was in Chelyabinsk — by 2.2%, up to 75.2 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In Ufa the same dynamics amounted to 2%, up to 106.5 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In “Floors” they note an increase in the average cost of “secondary” in Omsk by 3.73%, up to 86.1 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In Ekaterinburg growth amounted to 2.8%, up to 102.4 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. The only region that showed in monthly terms decrease in average cost proposals, according to Cyan.Analytics, has become Leningrad region. Relative to April, the average cost of housing here decreased by 0.6%, to 127.1 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. St. Petersburg the price is 199.6 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. Over the month, the value increased by 0.6%, over the year it decreased by 7.7%.

In Moscow, according to Cyan.Analitiki, secondary apartments are now exhibited at an average price of 301.5 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. For the month, the indicator has not changed, for the year it decreased by 5.4%. Sergei Shloma, Director of the Secondary Market at Inkom-Nedvizhimost, points out that the average cost of an apartment within the boundaries of “old” Moscow is now 14.6 million rubles, the value has decreased by 0.4% over the month. In the market of New Moscow, the budget decreased by 0.2%, to 9.87 million rubles, and in the Moscow region it increased by 0.2%, to 6.65 million rubles.

Mr. Shloma believes that liquid offers are now in demand: “Apartments with normal prices are sold quite quickly.”

According to the results of April, the volume of demand, according to the expert, doubled the figure for the same period last year. Although in this case, it is worth considering the effect of a low base, which arose due to the shock that consumers experienced last spring.

Relative to March, the number of advance payments in April decreased by 5%, adds Mr. Shloma. Violetta Khachaturova, Head of Sales at Apple Real Estate, notes the revival of demand in the high-budget real estate segment.

In total, 228 thousand ads for the sale of secondary housing are now available in the 18 largest regional markets, Alexey Popov, head of Cyan.Analytics, points out. Over the month, the indicator, according to him, decreased by 1.5% due to the balancing of the market and the May holidays. For the period of the latter, many owners suspend the active promotion of their facilities, the expert notes. The activity of the audience, according to Mr. Popov’s estimates, remains stable, and the average ad exposure period per month has decreased from 117 to 113 days. Ildar Khusainov, director of Etazhi, speaks of a decrease in the discount market due to a general increase in activity, now the average discount is less than 5%.

Sergei Shloma points out that in the summer months the real estate market is traditionally calm. This year is unlikely to be an exception: the expert does not predict bursts of activity, although he is counting on the implementation of pent-up demand due to the flow of part of buyers from the segment of new buildings. The head of the secondary and out-of-town areas of Avito Nedvizhimost, Sergey Khakhulin, connects the latest trend with the fact that fewer and fewer developers began to subsidize mortgage rates.

The dynamics, according to Mr. Shloma, will continue until developers lower prices or homeowners in the secondary market significantly increase them.

Aleksei Popov, however, is only counting on maintaining a slow rise in nominal prices. The expert states that pent-up demand leads to the washing out of the most liquid objects. This indirectly affects the average values. Opportunities for a real increase in value for sellers are now limited. Mr. Popov points out that there are still many offers on the market from recent buyers of new buildings, who are more actively willing to bargain. Ildar Khusainov adds that the seasonal lull in the market will lead to a short-term increase in the size of discounts, but with the restoration of activity, they will begin to decline again.

Alexandra Mertsalova