SberCIB predicts the dollar at 65 rubles due to the resumption of the budget rule
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In January, the dollar exchange rate may drop to 65 rubles / $, think CberCIB Investment Research analysts. They attribute the possible depreciation of the currency to the decision of the Ministry of Finance to resume interventions in the foreign exchange market under the revived budget rule.
Experts are convinced that the decision of the Ministry of Finance to start selling yuan under the budget rule will “significantly reduce” the impact on the ruble of falling Russian oil prices. In this case, the yuan exchange rate may drop to 9.5 rubles. CberCIB clarified that the Ministry of Finance potentially has the equivalent of $100 billion in yuan, which it can sell on the market.
“With the price of Urals at $40 per barrel, the volume of foreign currency sales in February could amount to about 200 billion rubles, or $3 billion. This means that in February the effect of a decrease in Russian exports of oil and oil products will be offset by 60% using the budget rule” , added to CberCIB.
The Central Bank of Russia from today, January 13, within the framework of the currency rule will return to foreign exchange transactions in the domestic market. They will be held on the Moscow Exchange in the “Chinese yuan-ruble” instrument. The Ministry of Finance from January 13 to February 6 will put up for sale foreign currency for 54.5 billion rubles.
Details – in the material “Kommersant” “Ministry of Finance took over”.
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