Savings do not withstand the market – Newspaper Kommersant No. 191 (7392) dated 10/14/2022

Another volatile quarter did not improve the performance of management companies (MCs) working with citizens’ pension savings. Private companies with a high proportion of shares in their portfolios ended the period with notable losses. More conservative management companies, including the state-owned VEB.RF, reported returns of 7-9% per annum.

According to the results of January-September, the profitability of the expanded portfolio of pension savings managed by VEB.RF amounted to 7.71% per annum, 0.68 percentage points higher than the result of the first half of the year (see “Kommersant” dated July 15). The yield of the government securities portfolio amounted to 9.29% per annum. The performance of private management companies is worse. For four portfolios of reported companies, the results turned out to be from a profit of 7.1% per annum to a loss of 21% per annum.

The low performance of private MCs was largely determined by the proportion of shares in portfolios. During the reporting period, the aggressive Moscow Exchange RUPAI index (40% shares, 20% OFZ, 40% corporate bonds) fell by 20% (more than 26.5% on an annualized basis), while the balanced RUPMI index (10% shares, 20% OFZ , 70% of corporate bonds) lost 3.6% (4.7% in annual terms). Such low performance of these indices is associated with the fall of the stock market, first against the backdrop of the beginning of the ICD, then against the backdrop of the refusal of the meeting of shareholders of Gazprom to pay dividends previously approved by the Board of Directors (see “Kommersant” dated July 1), and then partial mobilization and annexation of new territories to Russia (see “Kommersant” dated September 22). As a result, since the beginning of the year, the Moscow Exchange index has fallen by half, below the level of 2000 points.

At the same time, since the beginning of the year, the conservative RUPCI index (15% OFZ and 85% corporate bonds) has grown by 2.5% (3.3% in annual terms). Therefore, the best result was shown by the management companies that did not have shares in the portfolio, primarily VEB, in the investment declaration of which shares are not provided, and among private management companies – Alfa Capital. “This year we have taken an extremely conservative position on the management of PFR pension savings,” including in relation to bonds, and have not invested in shares, said Evgeny Zhornist, portfolio manager at Alfa Capital.

However, management companies that have shares in their portfolios are in no hurry to reduce the share of risky assets. After all, selling at current quotes is a fixation of large losses, which are still paper in nature.

“We use the aggressive pension savings index as a benchmark for the PFR portfolio. This approach allows us to maximize the income of pensioners over the long term,” says Artem Mayorov, Director of the Asset Management Department at Ingosstrakh-Investments Management Company. At the same time, transactions with securities are carried out in the conservative part of the portfolio. In particular, the surveyed management companies spoke about the reduction in the duration of securities in the last quarter, which allows leveling the negative impact on the value of the expected growth in yields. “This step is connected with the expectation of inflation growth until the end of the year and the likely tightening of rhetoric from the Bank of Russia,” said Ruslan Nikolenko, asset manager at BCS Mir Investments.

In the case of the state management company, due to the low activity of the Ministry of Finance and high-quality issuers in the debt market, the share of deposits in its portfolio increased mainly. According to Kommersant’s estimate, in the third quarter, the volume of investments in corporate bonds grew by 2.7%, to 971 billion rubles, while the corporate bond index of the Moscow Exchange rose by less than 0.5%. At the same time, the volume of deposits increased by almost 17%, to 558.7 billion rubles. VEB noted that they are interested in increasing the share of corporate bonds, given their higher yield compared to OFZs and an acceptable level of risk. In addition, the management company in the third quarter placed on deposits in banks 200 billion rubles. at rates of 8% and 8.5% per annum.

Until the end of the year, management companies expect a recovery in the debt bond market.

“If the news background normalizes, we will see a gradual increase in the prices of ruble bonds. And the current yields look attractive,” notes Evgeny Zhornist. Ruslan Nikolenko notes that issuers of high credit quality are entering the primary market, which have growth potential in the secondary market. Do not rule out growth in the stock market. “There is every reason to expect a recovery in the cash flows of the Russian corporate sector, which will sooner or later lead to a normalization of the company’s valuation,” says Vitaly Isakov, investment director at Otkritie Management Company. By the end of the year, he does not exclude the return of the growth of the index above the level of 2300 points.

Vitaly Gaidaev