review and price forecast for August 2023

Sensing an increase in the activity of buyers and counting on further growth in sales in the light of an increase in the key rate of the Central Bank, developers began to increase prices faster. Over the month, the average cost of new buildings in the largest regional markets increased by almost 2%, this is the most pronounced dynamics in six months. Until the end of the year, the figure may grow by another 5%, they are waiting on the market. An increase in the cost of loans will encourage buyers to refuse to buy secondary apartments in favor of new buildings, where preferential programs are maintained.

The average cost of primary real estate in the 18 largest regional markets of the country (16 million-plus cities, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in August amounted to 147.1 thousand rubles. per sq. m, an increase over the month by 1.9%. Such data are provided by the experts of Cyan.Analytics. This dynamic was more pronounced than in the last five months, when the average grew by no more than 1%. Although other analysts do not yet see such a pronounced trend. In “Etazhy”, the average cost of new buildings in Russia as a whole is estimated at 120.5 thousand rubles. per sq. m, for the month this value increased by only 0.04%. According to Avito Nedvizhimost, the budget for supplying an apartment on the primary market in the country is now 5.87 million rubles. By the previous month, the value even decreased by 0.4%. Although in this case, the dynamics is largely due to changes in the apartment layout of the exposition.

The most pronounced increase in average prices in the primary market for the month, according to Cyan.Analytics, occurred in Kazan. Here, new buildings have risen in price by 6.5%, to 191.5 thousand rubles. per sq. m. V Chelyabinsk the dynamics was 5.1%, up to 104 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In “Etazhy” they noticed an increase in the cost of the initial offer in Krasnoyarsk – by 2.5% compared to the previous month, up to 94.7 thousand rubles. per sq. m. V Saratov the increase was 2.4%, up to 61.9 thousand rubles. per sq. m. V Moscow, according to Cyan.Analitiki, new buildings cost an average of 328.6 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Over the month, the value increased by 1.4%, over the year – by 2.3%. IN St. Petersburg the same dynamics amounted to 0.3% and minus 3.3%, up to 232.1 thousand rubles. per sq. m.

The average budget of an apartment in the primary market in Moscow, according to Avito Real Estate, is now 15.3 million rubles. In St. Petersburg – 8.1 million rubles. Over the month, the figures rose by 11.8% and 1.2%, respectively.

Alexey Popov, the head of Cyan.Analitiki, explains the acceleration in the growth rate of prices for new buildings by the reaction of developers to increasing demand. In July, 13.4 thousand equity participation agreements were concluded in Moscow and the region, in million-plus cities, excluding Moscow and St. Petersburg – 15.4 thousand. Mr. Popov calls both of these indicators record after February 2022. The increased demand, he said, has continued over the past two weeks: this can be seen in the number of user interactions with ads. The head of the primary direction of “Avito Real Estate” Dmitry Alekseev says that now the activity of users in the search for primary real estate is 41.8% higher than in August last year. By July, it rose by 18.9%.

Aleksey Popov connects the dynamics with the weakening of the ruble. Sales Director of “Etazhy” Sergey Zaitsev considers the general uncertainty as a factor, including due to the expectation of further growth of the key rate of the Central Bank.

In the outgoing week, the regulator is already unscheduled raised its value from 8.5% to 12%. Alexey Popov draws attention to the fact that it is still difficult to track the influence of the buyers themselves on the decision, but developers have already stepped up campaigns with the message “buy now”. And some of them completely suspended sales to develop a further strategy, says Mr. Zaitsev.

Alexey Popov does not rule out that the increase in the key rate will attract additional buyers to the primary market – “mortgage holders” who previously chose housing in the secondary market, but now they will face an increase in the cost of loans. For the majority of new buildings on the market, according to his observations, preferential mortgage programs are relevant. Taking them into account, the primary offer is now again in a more advantageous position relative to the secondary one, Mr. Zaitsev notes. But the expert suggests not to forget that in the latter a lot is determined by the policy of the owners: they can, for example, start making discounts that can level the difference in the cost of lending.

The activation of demand contributes to the growth of average prices not only based on the policy of developers, but also due to the washing out of the most budgetary part of the exposition. In the Moscow agglomeration, according to Cyan.Analytics, 111 thousand lots are now available in new buildings, in the St. Petersburg agglomeration – 75 thousand, in other million-plus cities – 83 thousand. The total figure for the month decreased by 3%.

Expecting a further increase in demand, analysts interviewed by Kommersant are counting on rising prices for new buildings.

Sergei Zaitsev suggests that by the end of the year the figure may increase to 5%. But there will be no shortage of supply. “The market will begin to more actively sell the volume of unsold lots accumulated over the previous months,” the expert explains. Zhilfond Director Alexander Chernokulsky does not rule out that with an increase in the key rate, developers will face an increase in the cost of project financing: this may additionally affect pricing in new projects.

Alexandra Mertsalova