Restaurants are satiated

Although since the beginning of this year, the dynamics of closures of catering companies has not been as high as a year ago, but it is too early to talk about positive changes in the restaurant market. Moreover, the number of openings of new food outlets lags behind last year’s figures. Market participants are in no hurry to do this because of the increasing costs and the difficulties that have arisen with the supply of the necessary equipment from abroad. Experts expect that in 2023 restaurateurs will focus on opening more budgetary establishments due to the trend of Russians to save money.

According to the estimates of the Kontur.Fokus service, which Kommersant has, in January-March 2023, 5.2 thousand organizations stopped working in the catering market throughout Russia, which is a third less than a year. In general, last year more establishments were closed, which is also due to the outflow of the solvent population, says Dmitry Tomilin, director of the real estate management department at Shokoladnitsa Group.

Since the beginning of this year, the dynamics of closures of catering enterprises has decreased due to the desire of businessmen to wait for a simplified procedure for the liquidation of legal entities, Anton Yakovlev, an expert at Kontur.Focus, believes. Last year, the State Duma considered in the first reading amendments to the law on state registration of legal entities and individual entrepreneurs, which simplify the process of closing companies and reduce the time for this procedure from six months to three to four months.

The fact that the situation in the restaurant market is still far from stable is evidenced by the data of Kontur.Focus on the opening of new enterprises in the industry. In the third quarter of 2023, 7.5 thousand such legal entities appeared across the country, which is 11% less year on year. This, according to Anton Yakovlev, may indicate that the industry continues to be weighed down by a decrease in purchasing power and an increase in the average bill in catering establishments due to the rise in food prices.

Another problem is the increased costs of opening new establishments by 20-30%, depending on the concept, Mr. Tomilin adds. This automatically increases the payback period of projects, he notes. Also, the expert continues, it has become more difficult for restaurant market participants to purchase the necessary equipment abroad, the delivery time has increased to six months. Now it is problematic to find suitable premises for restaurants, especially on the popular pedestrian streets of Moscow, adds Irina Kozina, director of street retail at NF Group.

It takes three to five months to launch a restaurant, so the low rates for opening new establishments in the first quarter of this year are echoes of the events of October-November 2022 that negatively affected business activity, explains Franshiza.ru expert Anna Rozhdestvenskaya. The analyst is referring to the consequences for the economy of the autumn partial mobilization, which also became the reason for the relocation of some restaurateurs to other countries. During that period, many entrepreneurs suspended work on new projects in catering.

However, there are regions where Kontur.Focus recorded a sharp increase in new catering establishments. The highest growth was shown by the Donetsk and Luhansk republics. If in January-March 2022 only 17 companies were registered in the DPR, then since the beginning of this year – already 616. In the LPR a year ago, only three new enterprises of the industry appeared, then since the beginning of 2023 – 589. The dynamics is explained by the low base last year in the LPR and DPR. In recent months, requests have been received from these regions to purchase franchises and launch a business in the catering segment, but so far not all franchisors are ready to consider entering Donetsk and Luhansk due to existing difficulties, notes Anna Rozhdestvenskaya.

In 2023, restaurateurs will make decisions about opening new establishments with caution and will focus on the low and medium price segments, predicts Dmitry Tomilin. First of all, according to Anton Yakovlev, cafes, bars, bakeries and confectioneries will be in demand among entrepreneurs, where the investment input is lower and it is easier to find a buyer for a ready-made business.

Daria Andrianova