“Resale” equipped with discounts – Business – Kommersant

Declared prices for secondary real estate are still stable: since September 20, we are talking about only a slight decrease in some cities. But almost all transactions in the market are concluded with discounts. This is due to the increase in supply and reduced activity of buyers. Such dynamics in the market will continue for the time being: in the face of a negative information background, uncertainty, an outflow of some potential buyers and rising mortgage rates, the number of transactions may decrease by 10-20%.

The average cost of secondary real estate in 16 million-plus cities in October amounted to 119.4 thousand rubles. per sq. m, decreasing by 0.1% compared to the end of September. Such data are provided by Cyan.Analitika, noting that sellers are not yet ready to go for a pronounced decrease in nominal prices. In “Etazhy”, the average cost of secondary real estate in the country as a whole is estimated at 93.1 thousand rubles. per sq. m, for the month the figure increased by 0.13%.

The most pronounced price reduction for secondary housing from the end of September, Cyan.Analytics experts note in Krasnodar, where the average indicator decreased by 1%, to 114.5 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In St. Petersburg the decrease for the same period amounted to 0.5%, to 203.6 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Analysts of “Etazhy” also drew attention to the reduction of the average in Kazan for the month – by 0.27%, to 126.1 thousand rubles. per sq. m. But the dynamics cannot be called homogeneous. For the same month, the average value of resale property grew up in Volgograd by 1.37%, up to 77.1 thousand rubles. per sq. m.

In Moscow, according to the calculations of “Cyan.Analitiki”, secondary real estate now costs an average of 306.2 thousand rubles. per sq. m, since the end of September, the figure fell by 0.8%. In outskirts of Moscow the decrease was 0.9%, to 160.9 thousand rubles. per sq. m. But the cost of sale in the capital market is now regulated by a discount: almost 90% of transactions are discounted, says the director of the secondary market of the company “Inkom-Nedvizhimost” Sergei Shloma.

Demand in the secondary market, according to the expert, is now reduced, and the volume of exposure in September increased by 5.2%.

In the segment of business-class housing, according to CEO of Apple Real Estate Danila Savchenko, the supply now significantly exceeds demand, and 50% of buyers, in principle, do not consider options without a discount. “Now the volume of supply is growing faster, but this is caused by the same panic that was in February,” he explains.

In the first days after the announcement of partial mobilization, the number of views of ads and calls to them decreased by 20% relative to the background values, recalls Alexei Popov, head of Cyan.Analytics. Now the indicators have slightly won back the fall, having increased by 15% compared to the end of September. But Mr. Popov calls the recovery in demand unsustainable: ad views are returning to baseline faster than calls, although this usually happens synchronously. The gradual recovery of demand relative to the end of September is also spoken in Avito Nedvizhimost.

Etazhi director Ildar Khusainov adds that at the end of September the behavior of the owners was also emotional: some of them were ready to sell their properties at a discount of 30-40% from the initial offer price. But the situation has stabilized, and now transactions with large discounts are of a single nature, being due to the urgency of their conclusion. The average discount in the largest cities, according to Mr. Khusainov, fixed at 5.9%. “The price is formed by the volume of supply that continues to grow, and against the backdrop of competition, the owners are loyal to bargaining,” he believes. Although Cyan.Analytics notes that there is no single trend for entering the market of a new offer now. For example, in Moscow, 20 days after the announcement of partial mobilization, 12% more new products were released than in the same period before this date, in St. Petersburg – 2% more, and, for example, in Novosibirsk – 13% less.

Alexey Popov believes that in addition to the general situation, the growth of mortgage rates will also negatively affect the secondary market. “The increase in the cost of lending has become a forced response of banks to increased risks in relation to a significant part of borrowers potentially falling under mobilization,” he explains.

The head of the secondary and out-of-town areas of Avito Nedvizhimost, Sergey Khakhulin, also considers the news background and mortgage rates to be the main factors that will further determine demand and prices in the secondary market.

“If the situation levels off, as it was in May-July, we can expect a gradual recovery in demand to the values ​​of mid-September, this will support prices, but if the background remains negative, this will put pressure on prices,” he argues.

Ildar Khusainov doubts that in the short term the owners will be ready to reduce the declared prices for real estate, although they will probably continue to provide discounts under substantive discussion. A similar forecast for the Moscow secondary market is formulated by Sergey Shloma, based on the fact that against the background of the mobilization and departure from the country of part of the economically active population, the number of transactions will decrease by 10-20%. “Sellers are ready for this, so it will be possible to buy almost any apartment at a discount, even without an urgent sale,” he sums up.

Alexandra Mertsalova