PSB analysts allowed the ruble to weaken to 75-80 rubles / $ by the end of the year
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In the second half of 2022, global economic growth will resume, but the ruble will weaken against the dollar: to 75-80 rubles / $ by the end of 2023, analysts at Promsvyazbank (PSB) believe. It is assumed that the Ministry of Finance will start filling the National Welfare Fund (NWF) by purchasing yuan.
“If the situation is favorable, oil and gas revenues of the budget in excess of the base ones are sent to the NWF, and if the situation is negative due to low oil and gas revenues, the resources of the NWF are spent to replenish the budget,” the analytical department of the PSB shared the budget forecast in its Telegram.
Analysts also associate the prospects for improvement in the oil and gas market with an increase in activity in China. “According to our estimates, the sale of yuan will take place most of the first half of the year, maintaining the stability of the exchange rate in the range of 68-72 rubles / $,” the PSB believes.
Since December 2022, the weakening of the Russian currency has been recorded: the ruble exchange rate has reached its lowest values since spring. In the Central Bank, similar dynamics bind with a reduction in foreign exchange earnings of exporters and an increase in demand for currency from bidders.
The current dollar and euro rates, as well as quotes of the main indices and stocks on the Moscow Exchange are available at special page.
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