Prices for secondary goods have frozen due to reduced demand for it

In the face of declining demand, large regional markets for secondary real estate in Russia have frozen: analysts have recorded neither a pronounced increase nor a decrease in average prices. So far we are talking only about a noticeable increase in the size of the discounts provided. Options for urgent sale appear on display, but the trend does not become widespread – more often, owners decide to maintain prices, postponing the sale of their properties.

The average cost of secondary real estate in 18 large regional markets of Russia (16 cities with a population of over a million, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in March amounted to 142.8 thousand rubles. per sq. m, having increased by 0.5% over the month, according to data from CIAN.Analytics. In “Etazhi” the average figure for the country as a whole is estimated at 122.1 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Over the month, according to analysts, it has changed almost nothing: the fluctuation is less than 0.1%. Avito Real Estate adds that the average apartment in an old building in Russia costs 5.2 million rubles. Over the month, the figure increased by 1%, year-on-year – by 15.6%. Yandex Real Estate analysts recorded an increase in average prices by 1% per month.

The most pronounced increase in average cost secondary proposal in “CIAN.Analytics” noticed In Nizhniy Novgorod: over the month the figure increased by 1.9%, to 146.5 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In Krasnodar the dynamics was 1.2%, to 131.9 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In “Etazhi” they note an increase of 2.85% in the average price in Saratov, up to 93 thousand rubles. per sq. m. At the same time in St. Petersburgaccording to analysts’ calculations, the value decreased by 0.9% per month, to 214.5 thousand rubles. per sq. m.

In Moscow the value over the last month, according to CIAN.Analytics, increased by only 0.1% and now amounts to 336.9 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Director of the “secondary market” direction of the company “Inkom-real estate” Sergei Shloma notes that the average supply budget in “old” Moscow now 13.98 million rubles. Over the month, the value increased by 0.6%, and over the year – by only 0.2%. In New Moscow the indicator did not change over the month, but over the year increased by 0.7%: an apartment costs an average of 9.89 million rubles. But the cost of sales for the month in practice, according to Mr. Shloma, in Moscow decreased by 2%.

Director of Etazhey Ildar Khusainov speaks of a decrease in real sales prices in Russia as a whole, recording an increase in the average sale period. “Competition for a real buyer forces owners to both reduce the selling price and make a discount: the average level of bargaining this month increased from 3% to 4.7%,” he says. At the same time, according to the consultant, there are also options for urgent sale on the market. The dynamics, in his opinion, are partly due to a shift in demand in favor of new buildings. Alexey Mukhanov, head of analytics at Yandex Real Estate, believes that secondary real estate is now becoming more expensive than primary real estate. “Some sellers are trying to follow new buildings and inflationary growth, this partly affects the average price, but overpriced lots remain on display for a long time,” he argues.

Although the head of CIAN.Analytics, Alexey Popov, notes that the number of officially registered transactions is now declining both in the secondary and primary markets of the country’s largest cities. The expert connects this not only with the rise in price of mortgage loans, but also with the lack of liquid supply: “buyers have not so much real choice.” The head of the secondary and suburban areas of Avito Real Estate, Sergei Eremkin, says that interest in purchasing secondary housing over the past month has decreased by 24.5% compared to the same period last year.

Mr. Khusainov assumes that the main trends – a decrease in demand and an increase in supply – in the secondary market will continue in the medium term.

Although the dynamics, according to the expert, are unlikely to be sharp: many of those who planned to sell real estate to improve living conditions will probably postpone the transaction.

Mr. Popov speaks about this, noting that over the month the number of available lots in the 18 largest regional markets increased by only 2%, to 197 thousand.

Alexey Mukhanov predicts a decline in prices on the secondary market while maintaining a high key rate. But this effect will be more pronounced in real transactions due to discounts provided than in the dynamics of average exposure prices, he warns. The decrease in declared average prices on the market, according to Mr. Khusainov, in general is mainly due to an increase in volume and a change in the structure of supply. Owners, as a rule, strive to maintain prices for their properties as much as possible, the consultant believes. Sergei Shloma believes that housing costs in Moscow will decrease by about 1% per month. Mr. Popov does not predict any significant fluctuations. “Weak demand may lead to a decline in average prices in some months, but we do not expect a deep drop of 5–7%,” he says.

Alexandra Mertsalova