Prices for new buildings in Russia 2023, price forecast

The revival of demand for new buildings due to the gradual adaptation of the market, the return of some buyers and their interest in family mortgages has not yet led to a pronounced increase in prices. The average cost of housing in the largest regional markets in monthly terms continues to stagnate, and the annual dynamics is the lowest in the last five years. This is largely due to the growth of exposure due to the willingness of developers to bring out a new offer. New products appear on the market at reduced prices, and discounts remain the main tool for stimulating sales.

The average cost of new buildings in the 18 largest regional markets of Russia (16 million-plus cities, Moscow and Leningrad regions) at the end of April amounted to 141.1 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, an increase of 0.5% compared to March. Such data is provided by Cyan.Analytics. According to the calculations of “Etazhy”, in Russia as a whole, primary housing now costs 118.9 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. Over the month, this value increased by 0.25%, and over the year – by 2.44%. Analysts call the latest figure a record low over the past five years.

The average price of an apartment in a new building in the country, according to Avito Real Estate, is now about 6 million rubles.

Compared to the previous month, the company noticed an increase of 2.5%, compared to the same period last year – a decrease of 0.9%.

The most pronounced growth declared value of primary real estate, according to “Cyan.Analytics”, for the month there was in Ufa: the indicator increased by 3.8%, to 112.3 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In Rostov-on-Don the same dynamics amounted to 3.1%, up to 124.6 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In the “Floors” noticed the same increase in the cost of new buildings in Krasnodar – up to 93.1 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. Simultaneously in Tyumenaccording to analysts, the average cost of new buildings decreased by 0.4%, up to 108.9 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In “Cyan.Analytics” noticed decline average offer price in Voronezh by 1.3%, up to 97.9 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m.

In Moscow, according to the calculations of Cyan.Analitiki, the average cost of new buildings is now 321.9 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. For the month, the figure increased by 1.8%, for the year – by 2%. The average price of a lot is 13.8 million rubles, according to Avito Real Estate. This is only 1.7% higher than the same period last year. In St. Petersburg the average cost of primary housing is now 228.7 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. This is 1.1% lower than in March and 3.3% lower than in April last year, according to Cyan.Analytics.

The total exposure of primary housing continues to increase. Alexey Popov, head of Cyan.Analytics, points out that 317,000 ads are currently on display at the site. Over the month, the indicator increased by 9%, and over the year – by 73%. Noticing an increase in the number of transactions in the first quarter, developers have stepped up their activity to withdraw a new proposal, the expert states. The head of the primary direction of “Avito Real Estate” Dmitry Alekseev does not give specific figures, but notes that the volume of supply increased by 21.6% over the month, and by 77% over the year.

Based on the activity of users, Mr. Popov expects that the results of April in terms of demand in the primary market will be quite positive. Sales director of “Etazhy” Sergey Zaytsev notes that the activity turned out to be higher than pessimistic expectations due to the growing interest in family mortgages.

“The market is now quite stable, the activity of buyers is high,” the expert says. Mr. Zaitsev does not consider the increase in supply to be critical, counting on a gradual recovery of the market.

Sergei Zaytsev predicts that a steady demand for new buildings will continue, and the average cost of new buildings will keep their positions. “Buyers are gradually returning to the market, postponing the purchase in anticipation of lower prices, now they understand that there will be no collapse,” he argues. Alexey Popov talks about the gradual adaptation of the market: this is noticeable both in the primary and secondary segments, where prices have stopped falling. “In an environment where many transactions in the “primary” are preceded by the sale of an apartment in the “secondary”, this returns to the market those who previously postponed the transaction, fearing to sell their finished housing cheaply,” he explains. But the average prices on the market, according to the expert, are affected by the cost of new products and the activity of developers to provide direct discounts. New cases, according to Mr. Popov, are now being launched at lower price levels, and discounts remain one of the key sales drivers.

Alexandra Mertsalova